#459 – A QUESTION OF RISK OPPORTUNITY – MALCOLM PEART

Not everybody is a student of Greek mythology but many of us will have heard of Icarus and his fall to fame after flying to close to the sun.  In the myth, as recorded by the Roman poet Ovid, the beeswax that held his wings together melted, gravity took over and after landing in the sea he drowned. 

Icarus’ father, Daedalus, was a skillful architect and craftsman and invented the feathered wings. He was also portrayed as a symbol of wisdom and knowledge, and he gave fair warning to his son about the risks of flying too high. 

But as with many warnings, particularly from parents, it’s only afterwards that most people realise that they should have been heeded.  Icarus was no exception.  In the intoxication of the excitement, and enthusiasm of experiencing flight, at least in the short-term, he ignored the fatherly advice, went too far, and paid the ultimate price.  It’s always easy to be wise after the fact.

But that’s the nature of human beings, some heed warnings and others don’t.  The common fact is that even if the risks are known some will suffer the consequences when they happen while others may reap rewards if they don’t.  It can be a fine line between success and failure.

Edges & Margins

In business, having a competitive edge often produces good (profit) margins.  If that edge is lost, then margins are eroded, and loss can result.  The CEO of Nasdaq, Adena Friedman, said “You can’t be successful in business without taking risks.  It’s really that simple” `but for those who may have failed then, being “once bitten twice shy”, they fear failure and may well be overly cautious.

Risk seekers, to succeed, will, with no apparent regard for the possibility of failure, seek out the margin and work at the edge of acceptable behaviour.  For extremists they may push the limits of such behaviour.  The profits may be spectacular, but the resultant losses are egregious; just consider some of the rogue traders over the past thirty years.

For the risk averse then rather than seeking a profit margin they create a wider and wider safety margin and may miss the boat.  As the business man John A Shedd said “A ship in harbour is safe, but it’s not what ships are built for” and sometimes ships must sail close to the wind to move.

Too Close

Too close for comfort” is one of several idioms related to the proximity of some sort of danger or other which creates feelings of nervousness or worry.  If there is only a narrow margin for error, we may be “too close to the edge” and there will be a fear of falling and failing.  Similarly, when things start to go wrong, we may find ourselves being ”too close to the wind” and in danger of taking a risky course of action to correct things.

Being close to danger results in a fight-or-flight response and adrenalin is produced in an ‘adrenalin rush’.  But it’s not just produced in life-threatening situations but also when there is an unexpected situation or when the risk of grasping an opportunity needs to be taken.

For some people, the experience is pleasurable and even addictive while for others it results in anxiety.  In the aftermath of a “close shave,” emotions are experienced.  There can be the euphoria of omnipotence having eluded danger on one hand.  On the other there may be the realisation that one’s throat could have been cut with subsequent feelings of doom and post traumatic shock.

Far Enough

So how far away is ‘too close’?  For the risk averse it’s as far away as possible while for the risk seeker it’s right on the very edge. 

If success is just “out of reach” it means that the adopted safety margin is too wide and there could well be a case of defeat being grasped from the jaws of victory.  However, with a reduced margin for error and corresponding reduction in the profit margin, then there could easily be a case of victory being seized from the clutches of defeat.

For the pragmatic ‘far enough’ is just short of “So close yet so far” so that achievement is just within reach.  Playing too close to the edge can require a degree of luck and when comes to pushing one’s luck, as my grandfather used to say, “you can go one far lad, but you can’t go too far”. 

Conclusions

Success and failure are all about risk and opportunity and the appetite of people and organizations to take a risk or seize an opportunity.  This also depends on how prepared they are to accept failure and trusting to luck and probability, or playing safe, being careful and having plenty of contingency.

For risk seekers they may crave for the ‘rush’ that comes with pushing the limits, as long as it’s at the expense of somebody else.  We may well see the traits of Icarus Syndrome with overconfident despots who are arrogantly reckless and only see the benefits rather than any pitfalls and damaging consequences.

There are also those who have tried and failed and realise that risk is something that doesn’t just happen to other people.  For those who have experienced risk they may have suffered some personal trauma as exemplified by Ovid, the poet who brought us Icarus, who wrote, “The man who has experienced shipwreck shudders even at a calm sea”.  As with religious converts who can become fanatics, any newly bitten risk-averse brethren can become risk shy and ignore opportunity.  Success and failure can be matters of opinion but if success is expected all the time there may well be disappointment if (or when) failure occurs.  “You win some you lose some” goes another idiom and while success can be “so near and yet so far” it ultimately depends on how risks are taken, and opportunities are not only recognised but seized. 

Bio:

Malcolm Peart is an UK Chartered Engineer & Chartered Geologist with over thirty-five years’ international experience in multicultural environments on large multidisciplinary infrastructure projects including rail, metro, hydro, airports, tunnels, roads and bridges. Skills include project management, contract administration & procurement, and design & construction management skills as Client, Consultant, and Contractor.

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