The global economy and the nature of work is changing rapidly in ways that will impact all of us for the foreseeable future. This is true of aviation as well, with airline pilot opportunities being a particularly challenging case. Technology, and automation in particular are transforming the world in ways we couldn’t even imagine just a few years ago. For those individuals considering a career in aviation or a related industry, this article endeavors to prepare you for both the challenges and opportunities of the future.

THE DISRUPTIVE ECONOMY

This term applies to the way in which the economy is changing, largely due to the rapid advance of technology. Automation has forced many people into a “gig economy” lifestyle, constantly acquiring more knowledge and new skills in order to adapt. The era is largely closed when an individual could assume that lifelong jobs/careers offering high hourly pay/salaries plus benefits would always be available. This is happening on a global scale and needs to be considered by anyone considering his or her direction in life.

It is important to note that these changes can only be implemented by society at a rate which the world can handle without causing massive chaos, even if the technology exists to force these changes on society in a short time. It’s just not feasible to literally throw large numbers of people out of work overnight! The nature of work is changing nonetheless, however gradually.

This situation applies to aviation as much as any other industry. Although it’s happening gradually and  does not impact everyone equally, it nevertheless generates a growing “gig economy” and the need for lifelong learning to acquire new skills, or as a minimum, updating existing ones. This general picture varies considerably from industry to industry and within a given industry. Airline pilot skills, however tend to remain constant once achieved, though recurrent training is always involved. The most significant vulnerability is due to automation and must be considered for those interested in this career.

Before proceeding with the specifics of aviation, the complete global economic picture must be considered first, in order to establish a basis for further discussion. The problem is that some people will be able to cope with the economic changes better than others. Those with minimal or no skills will essentially be “left behind”, particularly because of advancing automation. It will become increasingly necessary and difficult to find a means of providing meaningful work for these individuals in a way that will allow them to exist with dignity. This will be one of society’s greatest challenges in the future! In contrast, the relatively small percentage of the global population who are both educated and skilled will be the only ones capable of finding meaningful work on their own, essentially controlling their own destinies. Generally, those with STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) backgrounds will gravitate towards professions which value this background. While not a “hard” requirement for this occupation, it is a definite advantage. In the following sections the airline pilot profession will be broken down as follows:

• Description
• Current career path/salaries or earnings
• Predicted demand, short and long term
• Education and Training

Each of these will be based on both available statistics and the author’s own experience and opinions.

DESCRIPTION:

This includes both major (legacy) air carriers flying large aircraft such as the Airbus and Boeing types in use by Southwest, American, United, Delta etc. as well as one of the numerous smaller operations flying smaller aircraft as well, such as American Eagle, for example. This position currently utilizes a two-person crew: Pilot in Command (PIC, commonly called “Captain”) and First Officer (FO, commonly called “copilot”). The normal progression involves spending a few years as FO, eventually leading to PIC. Historically, this has been the most sought after occupation in the field of aviation. This section also includes fractional operations which are not airlines in the usual sense, but rather unscheduled, on-demand services flying very small jet aircraft with only a few seats, utilized by a clientele which prefers private flights, despite the significant higher cost compared to the cost of a ticket on a legacy or regional scheduled airline.

CURRENT CAREER PATH/SALARIES OR EARNINGS:

This is a complex picture that requires some discussion. While the current airline pilot shortage is well publicized as of this writing, many factors could potentially change this in the future. In the past, a certain percentage of pilots on virtually all major carriers have experienced a “furlough”, which is intended to be a temporary layoff, with the likelihood of being recalled at a later date. While this is the usual outcome, sometimes the airline goes out of business, leaving the affected pilots out of work. Sometimes they’re able to find positions with other airlines, sometimes not. In these situations, they are sometimes able to find much lower paying pilot jobs such as with regional airlines, small charter operators, flight instruction etc. Others may manage to shift careers to some other field, depending on their particular backgrounds.

In the face of today’s “hiring binge”, there is little concern regarding furloughs, though the pilot community is well aware of this eventual possibility. This industry has a long memory! In fact, the Boeing 737 MAX grounding has already caused Southwest to “step back” a bit from its hiring/pilot upgrade plans for the moment, though no furloughs are likely. The major factors to watch are the state of the economy, the state of the overall airline industry, the state of the particular airline involved and, most importantly, a pilot’s particular seniority status, since those with the lowest seniority standing are the “first to go” in the event of a furlough. Lastly, the technological impact of increasing automation is now emerging, something that never had to be considered in the past.

Remember that a career of this nature involves a lifestyle much different from the usual “9 to 5”  occupation. It obviously requires considerable travel and time away from home. Your home base may also shift from time to time, like it or not. The selection of assigned routes and types of aircraft are seniority-dependent, as are changes in home base. Family life is difficult, to say the least. Though this section focuses on the scheduled legacy (major) and regional airlines, there are other types of operations as well, as described in the following section, the legacy jobs being the most coveted but the most difficult to obtain. There are considerable differences in the life you will experience among the various types of these operations; flying for a small charter operation or fractional/regional airline is far more chaotic/stressful than flying for a legacy carrier. It will be necessary to “work your way up through the ranks” of these less desirable jobs in order to gain the experience needed to even apply for a legacy airline position!  There is a current pilot shortage which is ordinarily due to two factors: the high cost of training and the extended period of typically low earnings when first starting out in this occupation. In the current climate, however this problem is exacerbated by the continued growth of airline travel coupled with a lack of available qualified pilots, which will probably persist for the next few years. Regardless of the current conditions, it is still strongly recommended that you research the experiences of various pilots in order to make an intelligent, informed decision. Several videos of personal experiences are available on today’s aviation web sites.

There are many factors requiring considerable reflection that must all be borne in mind before choosing this career! That said, let’s take a look at potential earnings, which range from unexpectedly low to fantastically high!

The principal factors determining earnings are:

• airline category(major vs. the smaller regional/fractional/charter carriers)
• pilot experience
• union contracts

Benefits are not included in the figures shown in the following table, but are considerably greater for the majors than the regionals due to greater financial resources and the larger, stronger unions. The maximum annual flight hours are limited to 1000 hours by the FAA. Though airline pilots are paid hourly, this translates to a typical yearly amount, which is used in the following table showing annual salaries in thousands of dollars for the entire US airline industry, including legacy carriers such as American, United, Delta, Southwest etc. as well as the smaller regionals such as Horizon Air, Air Wisconsin, Piedmont etc. It also includes fractional operations such as Netjets, which utilize smaller jets operating on a charter basis, but which are nonetheless substantial operations which function much like the larger legacy/regional carriers. Lastly, there are much smaller charter operators such as Jet Suite Air and Miami Air International. While they may fly aircraft from very small jets to very large ones, they are much smaller organizations than the others. Technically, fractional/charter operators don’t function on a scheduled basis and are not considered “airlines” but are nonetheless included in this discussion.

For the sake of brevity, some details are not included in the table. For example, legacy salaries vary somewhat with the type aircraft flown, while fractional salaries vary with the number of working days per month. Also remember that the smaller charter operators don’t have the long-term schedules, benefits etc. as the others. The high salaries in the table come from the legacy carriers, while the low values come from the regional/fractional operations. Further details about each operation may be found at www.airlinecentral.com. PIC indicates pilot in command and FO indicates first officer. The figures shown are yearly salaries in thousands of dollars.

YEAR 1                                                YEARS 8-12                       

	FO	PIC	FO	PIC
LOW	37	65	46	93
HIGH	92	261	187	284

TABLE 1

  PREDICTED DEMAND, SHORT AND LONG TERM:

• SHORT TERM: For 2020 and the next few years, the legacy scheduled airlines are expected to grow about 2-4%, essentially in line with other industries. This translates to about 1000 – 1300 pilots for the larger airlines such as Delta, United and American and about 50-60 pilots for the smaller ones such as Alaska Airlines. While no equivalent data has been found for the other categories, regional and fractional airlines typically do have new aircraft on order, making it likely that they are growing at a modest rate as well. The much smaller charter and air taxi operations are much harder to predict, being more volatile than the other categories. Compared to previous years, however, current conditions (early 2020 and for the foreseeable future) are generating an unusually heavy demand for pilots, something not seen for quite some time!
• LONG TERM: The status of all commercial flight operations is constantly in a state of flux. Changing economic conditions, mergers, varying contracts between the legacy and regional carriers, management decisions, pilot union contracts or simply unanticipated operational/technical problems all impact the health and financial viability of all such employers. In the past, this has led to considerable uncertainty in this field, leading to job changes, furloughs, pay cuts or outright job loss, causing some to drop out of this career path altogether! Fortunately, the current climate appears to be much better than this, offering improved industry stability, at least for the next few years. Beyond this period of time, automation will have an increasing impact as time goes on. This is aviation’s “elephant in the room” and will doubtless begin to gradually affect the pilot population! Crew reduction will be the first casualty, with this author’s prediction that it will eventually result in a fully autonomous commercial fleet of aircraft, obviating the need for human pilots altogether! This is not a universally accepted conclusion, however especially within the pilot community, though airline management will most certainly be supportive of this effort! If it does happen, it will take several decades to reach this capability and convince the flying public that it’s safe and reliable enough for mainstream implementation.

 Automation is not only found in aircraft used by the airlines, but has been progressing in         the field of General Aviation (GA) as well. In 2001, a GA revitalization program called AGATE (General Aviation Advanced Transportation Experiments) was completed. This was a NASA-led consortium of both industry and academia which produced the forerunner of GA’s modern avionics systems. Subsequent advancements in electronics have brought GA to its present state, including sophisticated displays, flight management systems and autopilots. Just recently, GARMIN, a leading manufacturer of such systems, has developed a new feature which illustrates how far the advance of automation has progressed. Many high performance GA aircraft are flown by a single pilot in a wide spectrum of weather conditions. Until now, there was no “backup” in the event of pilot incapacitation, leaving the passengers with only a slim chance of survival! The new GARMIN system now provides a “one-button” push which starts a fully-automated process which will safely land the aircraft. This system communicates with Air Traffic Control (ATC), checks the weather, finds the nearest appropriate airport and executes the landing, finally stopping at the end of the runway; it finally shuts down the engine and tells the passengers to exit. This is indeed the harbinger of things to come! If this can be done today, it’s only a matter of time until this capability becomes much wider in scope, working its way into virtually all aircraft intended for transport, both for the commercial carriers and GA, facilitated in large part by advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI).

EDUCATION/TRAINING:

Depending on your aviation background, you can enter this field with an ordinary high school education, but some college is always desirable, especially STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math). When it comes to applying for an airline pilot position, you’ll discover that a college degree is definitely preferred and is a requirement for some legacy airlines. Even in cases where it’s not required, those with college degrees will always be considered first, assuming equal aviation backgrounds. In such cases, an applicant with extensive experience as a pilot in terms of flight hours and certificates/ratings versus one with minimal qualifications but having a college degree, the aviation background may well dominate. It just depends on the available applicant pool at the time and the hiring philosophy of that particular airline. Again, the current pilot shortage makes it much more likely that most qualified applicants will be hired.

The more serious discussion of this paragraph really revolves around training, which can come about in various ways through many different paths. All certificates from Private Pilot to Commercial Pilot and Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) follow a defined progression, from Private to Commercial to ATP. FO’s are typically hired with Commercial certificates, the ATP being optional at that point, but would be a “plus”. A PIC (Captain) must possess the ATP. In this section, we focus on obtaining the Commercial and ATP certificates. Let’s take a look at them:

• FLIGHT SCHOOLS: This is construed to mean anything from flight instruction found at your local airport to dedicated, full-time flight training institutions. Though pilot qualifications are spelled out in the Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR’s), the process found at a typical local airport is much different from that found at a more formal, dedicated flight school. Local flight instruction is typically given by an instructor working for a Fixed Base Operator (FBO) who also is engaged in fuel/maintenance services, aircraft tie-down/hangar rentals etc. These instructors usually come and go, since they’re only instructing in order to build flight time to qualify for better, higher-paying jobs. Few have a true passion for instructing and actually intend to make this a career. Such individuals are more likely found at dedicated flight schools. All instructors, however are required to pass the necessary tests for qualification and are therefore at least legal to provide this service. There are far more local airports/FBO’s than dedicated flight schools but an internet search will provide information on all of them. Any search containing the keywords “flight schools” will do the job. They may be usually be attended on either a full or part time basis. They have fleets of training aircraft and use simulators as well, which greatly enhances the learning process. Just look for one that suits your geographic preference and go to its web site for further information. All airman certificates also require a certain amount of aeronautical knowledge of such things as navigation, weather, rules of the road etc, provided by ground schools involving a significant amount of study. Local instruction often puts the onus on the student to do this via online courses, though some do offer local courses of this nature. It doesn’t matter how you obtain this knowledge as long as you can pass the required written tests.

The length of time required to obtain a particular certificate and the costs involved are considerably different between local FBO provided instruction and that of a dedicated flight school. The local option is very often the only one available to some people due to family, job, financial or time constraints. Most who go this route usually take years to become qualified as prospective airline pilot applicants. If you can’t fly at a reasonably consistent pace or can’t (or won’t) do justice to the ground school courses, then this approach simply won’t work! The progression through the certificates/ratings starts with the Private, followed by an instrument rating, then on to the Commercial and finally the Multi Engine rating and then the Certificated Flight Instructor rating (CFI), in order to get a typical flight instructor job to build enough flight time to satisfy the initial airline FO requirements. This is typically a long, arduous path taking several years at a cost of something in the $30k – $40K range. This same process can be accomplished at a dedicated flight school in a few months at a cost of about $90K. Either path still requires you to build up more flight hours for the airlines. This may be done either by working as a CFI or continuing on to a school that will bring you fairly quickly to the ATP, pushing your total cost beyond $100K! Current full time CFI salaries are running $45 – $56 $/hr, depending on experience, resulting in annual salaries of $68K –  $82K.

Compare this with the LOW figures in table 1. Why would anyone give up a higher paying job for a lower one? It’s because the long term potential salary structure is so much higher if you can “stick it out” long enough! It’s also true that most pilots just prefer airline flying to flight instruction.

• ·   AERONAUTICAL  UNIVERSITIES: This path combines a formal advanced education with flight training, but is far more costly than simply attending a flight school “only”. Institutions of this type are accredited universities offering a multitude of aviation oriented programs (degrees or certificates). These programs offer virtually anything in this field, from airport management to aeronautical engineering for example. As with other universities, Bachelor’s, Master’s and P.H.D. courses are likewise available. They can typically be attended on-campus or online, except for flight training, which obviously must be done in the usual manner. A four year Bachelor’s degree can currently cost in excess of $200k, plus $40k – $60K for flight training. Financing options are the usual ones normally available to any university, with veteran’s benefits applicable as well. Education/training at this level will certainly qualify you for a much wider choice of aviation occupations, but is obviously a serious decision considering the cost. As was the case with flight schools, an internet search for aeronautical universities will yield all necessary information.
• AIRLINE “AB INITIO” PROGRAMS: This is a relatively recent option and represents a change in thinking by the air carrier industry due to the current pilot shortage. This is an attempt to provide an incentive for those interested in an airline career by “partnering” with universities and/or flight schools to provide a path to an FO position. While the cost of such education/training is still incumbent on you, you’re part of a program specifically intended to get you into the cockpit. The general idea is for you to become employed as a flight instructor at the same ( or similar) school at which you learned for about 12 – 18 months after graduation in order to both build flight hours and earn a living. If you continue to meet all the required professional standards an attempt is made to get you into a “partnered” regional carrier FO position, eventually leading to the legacy (major) carrier FO slot. Much depends on the state of the airline industry at the time, which translates to the airline’s hiring needs, your reputation as a flight instructor, the flight school/university recommendation etc. Currently, this process is gaining traction and seems to be working, though the training/education costs are still yours. Some schools also offer partial tuition reimbursements via their partner airlines. An internet search for “airline ab initio training” or “university flight training” will suffice to get the required information.
• MILITARY: If you’re interested in this approach and are able to qualify for flight training, this is by far the best way to proceed! The financial advantage and flight experience gained just can’t be beat! Obviously you must be willing to make the necessary commitment to the required length of service. There two fundamental ways to proceed: Full-time active duty or joining a National Guard or Reserve unit. Either one takes a few years, but the Guard/Reserve plan will get you into the airlines considerably sooner than the active duty method and has much more flexibility in terms of the life style choices available and may potentially pay for college as well. These are two very different paths; it is highly recommended that you research both of them thoroughly before making a choice. The following link is an excellent description of this situation:

https://bogidope.com/civilian-to-guard-or-reserve/the-ultimate-military-pilot-career-path-part-1/

CONCLUSION:

The choice of an airline pilot career is not a simple one, to say the least. In today’s changing world many factors must be considered in order to plan for both short and long term conditions. An attempt has been made in this document to apprise the reader with a look at the “real world” conditions to which you will be exposed in reaching this goal, enabling you to make the most intelligent decision possible!

BIO:

Steve is a retired EE with an aviation background. He began flying at age 16, has 6000 hours+ and has been a naval aviator flying AD-5N’s, Convair 240’s/440’s for Mohawk Airlines and a fixed base operator doing both flight instruction and corporate flying, including a stint with the Civil Air Patrol.

He has two separate 4-year degrees: A BS in Business from Miami University, Oxford, Ohio and a BSEE from UMASS Dartmouth. He’s worked for organizations both small and large, commercial and military in the areas of management, marketing and design, as well as experience as an avionics technician. His engineering career includes both analog/digital circuit design, printed circuit board layout and project management. He’s worked in several different industries: autopilots (Edo-Aire Mitchell, circa 1970), sonobuoys (Raytheon) and various digital data systems for Motorola, 3COM and others. His current passion is the development of safety enhancing instrumentation for general aviation aircraft. He’s also written articles many years ago predicting the coming of age of autonomous aircraft.