The risk of a pandemic is not an unknown unknown. In the 2019 World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report it ranked at a less than average likelihood with a more than average impact. Not a bad assessment but the causes and consequences are difficult to evaluate. There is a barrage of statistical data by country; a lack of knowledge and changing opinions which generates misinformation that is then clouded by journalistic sensationalism in the hunt for yet more breaking news and a spot on the TV.
There are optimistic hopes and enthusiastic promises for a miracle vaccine which are supported by political paltering as world leaders pontificate and procrastinate but postpone any predictions for any return to normality.
But what will be normality and what will it eventually happen? There are cries that this world event, albeit unprecedented and somewhat confusing, will bring about a new world, new working, and new habits. Are these cries based on an evaluation of facts? Or are they made on the back of a reaction to suddenly working from home and having the novelty of a new approach fascinate a vociferous and influential few. Or are these cries made in the hope of being able to work differently because some people prefer this? Or perhaps are these voices of reason in a whirlwind of confusion and indecision peppered with rumours and innuendos as people cover their bases, remain indecisive and take a ‘wait and see’ approach?
The risk of pandemic was foreseeable and may have caught the planet off guard but what will eventuate. Michael Jackson sang ‘heal the world; make it a better place’ and when COVID-19 is ‘healed’ an opportunity for ‘a better place’ may exist. But ‘better’ is a matter of opinion and an opportunity for some may carry many residual risks for others…
“Social Distancing”
In the movie Demolition Man there is a memorable line when the San Angeles police department is called and the policemen replies ‘…or press 1 if you would prefer an automated response”. Humorous, yes, but people have already taken to distancing themselves as technology invades our lives: the ATM (Automated Teller Machine) vs the HBT (Human Bank Teller), the self-check-in at airports, and the self-check-out in supermarkets. Social interaction has become less and less and even on-line dating, once considered ‘odd’, is now becoming a norm.
Face-to-face meetings once punctuated with the occasional dial-in callers and a ‘squawk-box’ have been steadily replaced by videoconferencing, teleconferencing and even recourse to WhatsApp groups with random notifications and announcements. Texts, Emails, Skype, Zoom, and Teams and a move away from managing-by-walking-about enable us to communicate at any time without recourse to any direct human interaction. So, social distancing is not actually new it’s just been taken to a new level and even the ‘distance rules’ has now been quantified.
As with any ‘rule’ it becomes tradition and ultimately blind belief; for example, some religions eat fish on Friday while others avoid pork and beef, and some avoid all meat at all cost. The ‘rules’ on distancing started off at three feet, then it was a metre, then 1.5 metres and now it’s two but what is the science behind this arbitrary distance. Is it the aerodynamic properties and flight characteristics of the virus or the span of some politician’s arms plus a safety margin? Will this distance become such that the trusting handshake and gatherings greater than rules allow will become things of the past? There’s even talk of plexiglass between tables in restaurants if ever they are allowed to open as we knew them.
These rules of social distancing may well make us forget that we are social animals. And just like a caged animal when our primordial needs are removed certain consequences will arise. Isolationism and a solitary existence can lead to social inadequacy, suicidal tendencies or even tendencies towards harming others. Keeping one’s distance was one considered be antisocial so ‘social distancing’, despite being an oxymoron, may well become the risk of ‘antisocial distancing’ resulting in antisocial behaviour and fear of proximity to others; that’s anthrophobia.
Xenophobia
The current government-imposed travel bans and closed borders were easily imposed in the light of the initial ignorance and Pavlovian reaction to contain the virus by containing people. Some countries are considering lifting bans and allowing people across their borders as long as they test negative for the virus and stay in some state of quarantine. But what visa restrictions will ensue in the future and could hodophobia, a fear of travel, develop as people clutch their medical mask.
Political rhetoric is, understandably but perhaps unacceptably, nationalistic as countries knuckle-down in their own self-preservation modes. Such rhetoric is almost always emotive and others are blamed for the dilemma the world is facing. Some nationalities are targeted more than others and, on the basis of anthropological characteristics are either avoided or banished or blamed. The term ‘chinese virus’ is used with impunity and has obvious racist tendencies and potential jingoistic repercussions.
Old Cold War wounds, economic and ideological differences are being opened up. Old adversaries are blamed for not raising warning bells earlier, misreporting their ‘real’ death toll, covering up secret viral testing, and attacking ‘our way of life’. Resultant conspiracy theories linking the pandemic to economic and political needs run rife. This fuels nationalistic tendencies and promotes a fear of foreigners and their idiosyncratic differences. If this continues unabated then we run the risk of having to deal with paranoia and xenophobia inciting warmongering.
Dividing, Conquering and Controlling
There are two ways of leading and controlling – dividing or uniting. Twenty-two centuries ago Julius Caesar is said to have said “Divide et impara” when conquering ancient Gaul. Creating a common enemy divides opinion and a nationalistic ‘with us or against us’ mentality prevails. COVID-19 is a perfect common enemy which binds nations and has forced the closure of once open borders into closed ones and stopped international travel and tourism resulting in economic turmoil for many.
On a national level many governments have been able to divide their people through lockdowns into very small groups who can be bombarded with propaganda using COVID as the enemy. Governments can promote their ideology to these contained and anxious populations under the premise that “all of the people can be fooled some of the time”. But for some, under a similar premise, they can’t be fooled and may rebel against suppression and object to a Big Brother watching over their every move.
While it may be extreme to accuse governments of deceit, Niccolò Machiavelli opined over 500 years ago that “One who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived.” People can be so easily convinced that ‘war’ is the right thing and if a lie is told often enough it will be believed – for some even Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction are still a belief. Recent ‘wars’ have been declared on the basis of misinformation and if the future results in the continued suppression of peoples’ interaction then an increased likelihood of hostilities both domestic and foreign may be the order of the day.
Conclusion
The Great Plague of the 1665-6 lasted about 18 months and killed 25% (100k) of London’s population but it is remembered today in a nursery rhyme:
Ring-a-ring o’ roses
A pocket full of posies,
A-tishoo! A-tishoo!
We all fall down
One wonders how COVID-19 will be remembered:
COVID-19 came to town – doo dah doo dah
The Governments all locked us down
But even though COVID’s gone away
The shut downs are here to stay…doo dah day!
Time will tell.
Bio:
Malcolm Peart is an UK Chartered Engineer & Chartered Geologist with over thirty-five years’ international experience in multicultural environments on large multidisciplinary infrastructure projects including rail, metro, hydro, airports, tunnels, roads and bridges. Skills include project management, contract administration & procurement, and design & construction management skills as Client, Consultant, and Contractor.