The last ‘new normal’, by definition, was generally recognised in the aftermath of the 2008-2012 global recession. Before that it was the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and before that, at least in Asia, it was in 2004 after SARS. COVID is now causing another ‘new normal’ as people adopt various governmental mandated behavioral changes.
The world also awaits the consequential economic fallout that will compound any behavioral normalisation; equilibrating to a state of ‘new normal’ may well take some time. Ubiquitous mask wearing and awkward elbow bumping may well become lasting symbols of mankind’s 2020 efforts to combat our viral neighbour.
The aftermath of crises that adversely affect an economy or society and require adaptation and evolution has been termed a “New Normal“. The term was first coined in 1966 by the American sci-fi author Robert Heinlein and, even if we didn’t have a term for them, there have been a cascade of ‘new normals’ in the aftermath of 20th and 21st century crises. For example: WW1, Spanish ‘Flu, the Great Depression, WW2, the Cold War, HIV, BREXIT; the list is long and possibly endless.
Changes seem to be happening so frequently that ‘normality’ is now characterised by dealing with a state of almost constant volatility and uncertainty with some countries having a more than a normal share of newness.
Normality
People generally dislike change as it means their status quo and ‘normalcy’ are challenged and they must adapt. Politicians and governments, on the surface, advocate change with the promise of prosperity for all but with the same old retention of political power and whatever political doctrine they follow. No matter what the change the manner in which political control is exercised evolves slowly. When, not if, a crisis arises politicians and other wannabees searching for kudos will jump on the band wagon and hope they can benefit from disruption and the opportunity to make their mark.
Promoting a new normal and behavioral changes is on the lips of politicians and governments as they manipulate the masses. However, the old-fashioned trappings of power and control over people is retained. Cheryl Strayed, the American writer, wrote “Fear begets fear. Power begets power” and that obtaining power will overcome fear. However, those in power will inevitably seek to preserve their power and do so by keeping people in an almost constant state of fear; a bogey man is an essential member of any political party.
Fear of death and disease is perhaps at the top of most of the developed world’s agenda as people deal with travel and work restrictions, social distancing, face masks, and threats of military intervention. Second on the list is economic prosperity, living standards and savings. The ‘new normal’ focuses on keeping the masses under control as these basic foundations of Maslow’s hierarchy are undermined by COVID.
Newness
The so-called leaders of this world are, for the most part, democratically elected on the basis of their political propaganda and electoral popularity. In the ‘normal’ world success was linked to bettering standards of living, full employment, a stronger military, controlling inflation and, for the most part, keeping people happy. In these new times are our purveyors of power adopting anything new?
Political or leadership ‘success’ is now measured in terms of challenging this current pandemic as measured by the statistics of death, infection and ‘flattening the curve’. These initiatives are invoked through draconian restrictions, and imposition of laws based upon ‘scientifically based’ solutions by a plethora of experts with limited data and even less long-term experience. Opinions abound but who is right and who is wrong?
This latest ‘new normal’ has yet to be defined and the result is ‘fear’ as rules rather than equilibrium are enforced. People are uncertain in the light of so many opinions as well as both information and misinformation. There are no consistent standards, every country is different. Lockdowns or no lockdowns, testing or no testing, new laws or old laws; confusion prevails. Promoting fear in people through uncertainty has been a time-honored way of ensuring that those in power remain in power; normal but not new.
Conclusions
Putting a label on something makes it tangible and, whilst the term ‘new normal’ has been around for decades it’s now attached to COVID-19. This latest ‘new normal’ is on everybody’s minds but not necessarily in their hearts; after all life is for living.
Using the term ‘new normal’ allows politicians to pigeon-hole it. A name is not a solution but it implies that something is being done and politicians must be seen to be doing something, or at least saying something. This buys time and allows effort to be made on our politicians’ primary agenda of either retaining or gaining power.
The world is small and getting smaller in this modern technological age where information can travel at almost the speed of thought. The once open borders may now be restricted but information knows no boundaries and the lack of a common approach to COVID only promotes uncertainty, concern, and fear around the world. This uncertainty allows politicians to promote a change through a ‘new normal’ on one hand while retaining the old normal of wielding power and control on the other.
‘New normal’ may be a new term today but it has been around for over half a century and ‘new normals’ have occurred at an ever-increasing frequency as the world changes more and more rapidly. Many, if not most people may desire stability and certainty coupled with simplicity and clarity but the world is now full of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity.
The term is VUCA, and whilst only being a theory in 1987, it was used to analyse the potential effects of the collapse of the former Soviet Union in the early 1990’s after the advent of ‘glasnost’ and Russia’s ‘new normal’. However, how many more ‘new normals’ will we need to experience before we realise that change is pandemic and both mankind and its political factions will need to adapt to a VUCA world?
Bio:
Malcolm Peart is an UK Chartered Engineer & Chartered Geologist with over thirty-five years’ international experience in multicultural environments on large multidisciplinary infrastructure projects including rail, metro, hydro, airports, tunnels, roads and bridges. Skills include project management, contract administration & procurement, and design & construction management skills as Client, Consultant, and Contractor.