The world has the opportunity to change the paradigm and create a new framework of cooperation. COVID19 poses such a grave potential threat to health, peace, prosperity and stability for the world. A crisis following a disputed vaccine breakthrough would be a disaster. It would come just when the world urgently needs to address not only COVID19, but an array of shared problems ranging from climate change to geopolitical instability.
Introduction
Well over 170 countries are working toward developing a vaccine for COVID19. Much of the developmental research is not being readily shared, but rather coveted as “trade secret” protected. The thinking, perhaps, is that the first to develop an effective vaccine will reap untold riches selling the precious serum to a world beset by the COVID19 pandemic.
What the world needs is instead of a competition to be first, a cooperative effort to create an effective vaccine that can be produced and distributed for maximum effect. The remainder of this short article will highlight what a possible framework might look like if resources are pooled, a temporary cap on profits and manufacturing and distribution are shared. I am sure that the most controversial part of this framework will be the proposition to place a temporary cap on profits. Before you dismiss this as “pie-in-the-sky” thinking bear with me and remember that there are over 7 billion people at risk. There are 195 countries in the world today. This total comprises 193 countries that are member states of the United Nations and 2 countries that are non-member observer states: The Holy See and the State of Palestine. The national security of each country is imperiled by COVID19. Additionally, we are seeing a confluence of events that could portend even greater urgency to develop a vaccine and produce the quantities needed for worldwide distribution and inoculation.
The Framework: A New Paradigm
The framework for vaccine development must create a new paradigm for government and business cooperation, reduce (as much as possible) complexity, bureaucracy, political agendas, etc. No small feat to accomplish. However, if this can be done, the development of a vaccine could be accelerated. Getting 195+ nations to pool their resources for a common goal to get the best effect possible is one of the first hurdles that must be overcome. To this end, I would suggest that a neutral country be designated as the host for vaccine development and cooperation. Taking the current developers in each country and assembling them in a neutral location where they can work together in a cooperative effort. But where? Obviously, Switzerland comes to mind; alternate choices – Iceland and New Zealand as they are stable, isolated geographically and offer well developed infrastructure. In this way none of the current powers, USA, Russia, China, India, UK, European Union would be able to subvert efforts in the interest of national security for that particular nation. Once established, the development of a vaccine could be shortened by the collaboration of scientists instead of competition between nations, companies, etc.
Included in this framework would have to be a standardized protocol for testing. Universal testing is a challenge, as we have seen with the current programs for testing and test mechanisms (kits) that are seemingly constantly evolving. Finding a test that is “good enough” at producing consistent results should be the goal. Reining in the legal community, with its penchant of lawsuits with mega settlements would have to be mandated by all 195+ countries. I am sure that the legal community would be outraged, however, the risk that less than 100% accuracy of a standardized test would be low in terms of misdiagnosis. Additionally, we need to come to a collective understanding that being perfect in response to the COVID19 pandemic is never going to be possible. Production of test kits could be distributed to all 195+ countries where facilities are available or can be constructed in a time frame that facilitates the urgent need to test.
A requirement for transparency in vaccine development and free sharing of information is necessary. This would be controversial and unprecedented in many respects. However, a program for the sharing of development costs among countries, companies, etc. can be developed. A cap on profits can also be instituted to ensure that the private sector recoups costs and is incentivized by a temporary moratorium, say a 25% profit margin for the vaccine, production, etc. Once the pandemic is brought to an end, the moratorium on profits ends, the private sector can let the market demand set prices. Perhaps a bit of a bitter pill to swallow, at first. However, in order to get a standardized vaccine developed this may be a necessity.
Production of the vaccine presents the next challenge for the framework. What is the best means for production? Again, obviously, distributed production is necessary. Oversight to ensure that production quotas and supply management does not give way to the creation of a “black market” or intrusion of criminal enterprises. Deterrents to abuse will have to be enforced. Production challenges will put the supply chain at task to ensure that all the materials for the vaccine are available (i.e., vials, caps, etc.). Production facilities will also need to be protected physically as well as against cyber threats, tampering, etc.
Distribution of the vaccine is the next major hurdle to be overcome. How to distribute the vaccine? Should it be based on the ability to pay or on population, need and urgency? Protection of the supply chain (distribution) would be necessary to prevent interdiction by criminal enterprises, aggressive nations (hopefully a reduced threat due to the cooperative development process), populations that are feeling desperation due to case numbers, healthcare facilities capabilities, stress, etc. Ensuring equitable distribution of the vaccine must be assured.
Mandatory inoculation of the population will have to be addressed. This challenge is one that transcends the sheer logistics of inoculating 7+ billion people (an almost impossible task) but also will have to overcome resistance by religious groups, cults, fear of side effects, etc. Inoculation centers will have to be created. These will have to be better organized than the current testing sites that are being used. Haphazard implementation will further deter and undermine the inoculation process.
Administration and documentation of the entire process presents a challenge that must be overcome and streamlined. Scientific data should be centrally located and accessible to all. Here we would have to ensure the security of the data from cyber hacking, destruction, ransomware, insider threats and physical threats to the data center.
Conclusion
Beyond initial response and management; recovery and restoration of the healthcare systems and worldwide economies will present a final challenge. Ongoing monitoring, maintenance, reserve supplies of vaccine, further development of enhanced vaccines due to viral mutation will require an international cooperative be established, funded, staffed and coordinated. The vast challenge of addressing and extinguishing the COVID19 pandemic is one that the world – all 195+ nations needs to address collectively not separately. The advantages are manifold the disadvantages of the current path could lead to higher death tolls, longer disruption to the worldwide economy and dislocation, disenfranchisement, increased social unrest, etc.
This is not meant to be a comprehensive examination of the current challenges we face with vaccine development, production and distribution. Rather, it is hoped that the thoughts expressed here will get an expanded dialogue started; one that leads to maximizing the talents, resources and collaboration of all the countries and peoples inhabiting planet Earth.
Geary Sikich – Entrepreneur, consultant, author and business lecturer
Contact Information: E-mail: G.Sikich@att.net or gsikich@logicalmanagement.com. Telephone: 1- 219-513-6244.
Geary Sikich is a seasoned risk management professional who advises private and public sector executives to develop risk buffering strategies to protect their asset base. With a M.Ed. in Counseling and Guidance, Geary’s focus is human capital: what people think, who they are, what they need and how they communicate. With over 30 years in management consulting as a trusted advisor, crisis manager, senior executive and educator, Geary brings unprecedented value to clients worldwide. Geary has written 4 books (available on the Internet) over 475 published articles and has developed over 4,500 contingency plans including over 1,000 pandemic preparedness plans for clients worldwide. Geary has conducted over 500 workshops, seminars and presentations worldwide.
Geary is well-versed in contingency planning, risk management, human resource development, “war gaming,” as well as competitive intelligence, issues analysis, global strategy and identification of transparent vulnerabilities. Geary began his career as an officer in the U.S. Army after completing his BS in Criminology. As a thought leader, Geary leverages his skills in client attraction and the tools of LinkedIn, social media and publishing to help executives in decision analysis, strategy development and risk buffering. A well-known author, his books and articles are readily available on Amazon, Barnes & Noble and the Internet.
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