There is a lot of confusion about what to do if you contract a Covid-19 infection. Multiple drugs have been suggested as possible treatments, and clinical trials have been conducted to determine whether any of these treatments is effective at keeping the disease from progressing to a life-threatening stage.

Early on, it was suggested that hydroxychloroquine might be an effective treatment. Since then, dozens of drugs have entered clinical trials. As of the current date, none of these have been proven to be both safe and effective, nor has it become clear when in the course of the disease these drugs should be administered.

• Is there a drug you can take as a preventative that will protect you from contracting Covid-19?
• Is there a drug that will reduce the severity of the disease if you take it as soon as symptoms appear?
• Is there a drug that will enhance your chance of survival if it is administered after you are seriously ill?

At present, there is no known drug that can protect you from acquiring a Covid-19 infection. Similarly, if you are already seriously ill. There is no known drug that will cure you, although there are some things that can tamp down your body’s hyper-immune reaction to the infection. Often the immune reaction is more dangerous than the infection. However, a paper that is soon to appear in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases offers some hope that a drug taken shortly after infection can reduce the severity of the disease for many people.

The paper referenced in the above paragraph is a study of the experiences of hospitals in the Netherlands that fall into three categories.

• One group of hospitals gave patients standard care, with no additional drug
• A second group added administration of hydroxychloroquine to standard care
• The third group added administration of chloroquine to standard care

With the data from these treatment courses, it is possible to determine whether the two chloroquine drugs provided any benefit over standard care.

Effectiveness of treatment is determined based on outcomes. Three basic outcomes were considered.

• Outcome 1: The patient recovered and was released from the Covid-19 ward in the hospital.
• Outcome 2: The patient’s condition worsened, and he or she was transferred from the Covid-19 ward to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU).
• Outcome 3: The patient died while still in the Covid-19 ward.

Outcome 1 was, of course, the most desirable. However, mere release from the hospital did not mean that the patient was back to normal, only that the disease was no longer active. Outcome 2 was less desirable, since patients sent to ICU were seriously ill and quite likely died there. Survival rates for Covid-19 ICU patients are not high.

What were the primary results?

Result 1: The rate at which hydroxychloroquine patients were transferred to the ICU was 53% less that the rate the standard care patients were transferred to the ICU.

Result 2: The rate at which chloroquine patients were transferred to the ICU was no better than the rate the standard care patients were transferred.

This was surprising. It was thought that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine were equivalent to each other. They are very similar chemically. Furthermore, the size of the effect for hydroxychloroquine was huge. Less than half the percentage of patients that took that drug advanced to needing ICU care, compared to those who did not receive it.

We are justified in concluding that early administration of hydroxychloroquine to a Covid-19 patient decreases the chance that the patient will need to be transferred to the ICU. This may be reason enough to change the protocol for incoming Covid-19 patients.

BIO:

Allen G. Taylor is a 40-year veteran of the computer industry and the author of over 40 books, including Develop Microsoft HoloLens Apps Now, Get Fit with Apple Watch, Cruise for Free, SQL For Dummies, 9th Edition, Crystal Reports 2008 For Dummies, Database Development For Dummies, Access Power Programming with VBA, and SQL All-In-One For Dummies, Third Edition. He lectures internationally on astronomy, databases, innovation, and entrepreneurship. He also teaches database development and Crystal Reports through a leading online education provider. For the latest news on Allen’s activities, check out his blog at wwwallengtaylor.com or contact him at allen.taylor@ieee.org.