The vaccination program for Covid-19 is running ahead of schedule, and now, in most of the United States, anyone over the age of 15 can schedule an appointment to be vaccinated. This is certainly good news, but it does not mean that we are on the downslope of this fight. Mutations to the SARS-Cov-2 virus are spontaneously appearing whenever new people are infected. Most of these mutations don’t matter, but some definitely do, giving rise to new VOCs (variants of concern).

• Some of these variants are more virulent. They make you sicker than the original virus would have.
• Some of them are more infectious. They are likelier to cause infection if you are exposed to them.
• Some are both more virulent and more infectious.

The vaccines being injected into arms around the world were developed to prevent the variant of SARS-Cov-2 first identified in Wuhan, China. As the virus is passed from an infected person to an uninfected person, the mutations that inevitably occur in that process, may diminish the effectiveness of a vaccine that was developed to fight the original Wuhan strain. As new VOCs emerge, vaccine manufacturers can “tweak” their vaccine to deal with the new variant, but they will always be a step behind, trying to play catch-up. The hope is to break the chain of transmission by reducing the pool of infectable people through vaccination, as well as by social distancing, mask wearing, ventilating indoor spaces, and avoiding crowds. Disease spread stops where, on average, one infected person infects fewer than one other person, before clearing the pathogen from their body. This is what all mitigation efforts are designed to achieve. Universal vaccination can break the chain of transmission.

Vaccination is our best hope to end the Covid-19 pandemic. However, as noted above, it is not a magic bullet that will make Covid-19 go away for good. The SARS-Cov-2 pathogen, thanks to natural selection, will continually come up with new defenses to everything we try to use, to fight it, including vaccines.

In the April 21, 2021 issue of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) from the CDC, an article describes the experience of a skilled nursing facility in Kentucky. A Covid-19 outbreak occurred at the facility after all residents and health care personnel (HCP) had been offered vaccination.

• 90.4% of residents received two doses of vaccine.
• 52.6% of health care providers (HCP) received two doses of vaccine.
• Testing identified the first case of Covid-19 in an unvaccinated, symptomatic HCP.

Vaccine effectiveness was calculated, based on how well the residents and HCPs fared after becoming infected. Outcomes recorded were:

• SARS-Cov-2 infection
• SARS-Cov-2 symptomatic infection
• Hospitalization
• Death

Takeaways:

• Vaccinated residents were 3 times less likely to be infected than were unvaccinated residents.
• Vaccinated HCPs were 4.1 times less likely to be infected than were unvaccinated HCPs.
• Vaccinated persons were significantly less likely to experience symptoms or require hospitalization.
• 25.4% of vaccinated residents and 7.1% of vaccinated HCPs were infected.
• Three residents died, two of whom were unvaccinated.

We see from this that:

• Vaccination reduces the likelihood that a person will be infected with SARS-Cov-2.
• If a vaccinated person does contract Covid-19, it is likely to be a lighter case.
• Vaccination is not an effective protection against contracting Covid-19.
• It is possible, but unlikely, for a vaccinated person to die of Covid-19.

Based on this, it makes sense to:

• Get vaccinated as soon as you can.
• Make sure you receive the second (booster) shot after the appropriate interval.
• Keep taking all the precautions against infection. An “I’ve been vaccinated” card is NOT a “Get out of jail free” card.

BIO:

Allen G. Taylor is a 40-year veteran of the computer industry and the author of over 40 books, including Develop Microsoft HoloLens Apps Now, Get Fit with Apple Watch, Cruise for Free, SQL For Dummies, 9th Edition, Crystal Reports 2008 For Dummies, Database Development For Dummies, Access Power Programming with VBA, and SQL All-In-One For Dummies, Third Edition. He lectures internationally on astronomy, databases, innovation, and entrepreneurship. He also teaches database development and Crystal Reports through a leading online education provider. For the latest news on Allen’s activities, check out his blog at wwwallengtaylor.com or contact him at allen.taylor@ieee.org.