In the “Jaws” movie franchise, there is one movie after another where a great white shark attacks people at the beach who venture too far from shore.  Clearly, it was not safe to get back in the water, but the people did anyway. Frolicking at the beach is a great summer recreation, but if Jaws is still out there somewhere, it is not a great idea.

We have a similar situation with Covid-19. After an initial peak, social distancing, mask wearing, and then vaccination sent infections and deaths down in countries that practiced those intervention. However, like Jaws, Covid-19 keeps coming back, more dangerous than ever. Why is this?

The original strain of the SARS=Cov-2 virus was dangerous. It infected a cluster of people in Wuhan, China and a single passenger who boarded the Diamond Princess cruise ship. That passenger left the ship at the next port of call, but had already passed on Covid-19 to other passengers, many of whom got infected, and some of whom died. China clamped down hard with a lockdown that averted a major breakout of the virus in that country, but the cat was already out of the bag. Travelers from China went all over the world where they seeded new outbreaks.

As dangerous as the original Wuhan strain of the virus was, it was subsequently out-competed by the alpha variant that originated in the UK, and other more transmissible variants, each outcompeting the previous top dog in a survival of the fittest battle. The winner in those battles has always been the strain that is more infectious than the previous top dog.

Now we have the delta variant, which originated in India. After bringing a wave of death to India, it has spread around the world. It is one thousand times (1,000X) more infectious than the original Wuhan strain.

Now, just as countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States are loosening restrictions, in the mistaken belief that the worst is now over, the delta variant is surging, and infection rates that had been trending down are now headed for the stratosphere once again.

Vaccines have been developed and appear to be very effective at preventing serious disease and death, although getting a mild case is still possible. That’s a bargain that I will gladly take. I have already taken it, by receiving my shots.

Unfortunately, many people around the world have not been vaccinated and are not planning to get vaccinated. Since every unvaccinated person is a potential breeding ground for a new, virulent variant of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, we are all at risk of infection by a new emerging variant that is even more infectious than the now dominant delta variant. With the majority of the population of the world serving as a potential breeding ground, it is inevitable that the virus will continue to mount ever more dangerous attacks on humanity. To prevent this outcome, we all need to get behind the effort to vaccinate everyone in the world. As long as there is still a breeding ground for the virus anywhere in the world, it will escape, more dangerous than before. We need to defeat this enemy before it comes up with a way around the protection provided by the current vaccines. If we fail in the fight, the virus will win. If it wins, it will be killing people forever, and our generation will be remembered as the one that had a chance to eliminate it, but did not.

BIO:

Allen G. Taylor is a 40-year veteran of the computer industry and the author of over 40 books, including Develop Microsoft HoloLens Apps Now, Get Fit with Apple Watch, Cruise for Free, SQL For Dummies, 9th Edition, Crystal Reports 2008 For Dummies, Database Development For Dummies, Access Power Programming with VBA, and SQL All-In-One For Dummies, Third Edition. He lectures internationally on astronomy, databases, innovation, and entrepreneurship. He also teaches database development and Crystal Reports through a leading online education provider. For the latest news on Allen’s activities, check out his blog at wwwallengtaylor.com or contact him at allen.taylor@ieee.org.