Prologue:

The prospect of famine affecting the United States, potentially of biblical scale, is one of those unthinkable topics.  It is so far out of mainstream consciousness that many if not most people lack awareness of or even consider the possibility.  That is why, when researching the topic of food risk, we gathered an unusually large number of sources from across the information spectrum.  Mainstream to fringe. 

A large sample size to lessen the probability that conditions affecting food availability might be misconstrued or driven by a few strident voices.  Consequently, when reading this article keep in mind that the topic is risk and risk is about future uncertainty.  None of the conditions we cite may have a significant long-term effect on food availability and cost. On the other hand, they might.

Will you have enough to eat at a price you can afford?

Existing and emerging conditions suggest that the availability of food as we have known it may be at risk in the next 6 to 18 months. ⁽¹⁾

Now, an array of events spanning time and geography, some of which might at first glance appear of but distant relationship to food production, are in play.  While others many believe coincidental surfaced. When viewed overall these conditions may portend a calamity unexperienced by current generations of Americans.

Everyone knew he could foretell wars and famines, though that was not so hard, for there was always a war, and generally a famine somewhere. – Mark Twain ⁽²⁾

What happens if we cannot find the foods we like, or if we can the price has risen to an excess such that we look for lower price alternatives?  We are all accustomed to consuming foods we like, when we like, and at a price reasonable for our circumstances.  What happens if we cannot find food at all?

We make no effort to predict the future, but conditions suggest food availability in the near future may now be at serious risk.  Risk consequences are easily understood as shortage at best and starvation at worse.

World on precipice of food crisis says Goya Foods CEO Bob Unanue, April 26, 2022. ⁽³⁾

The likelihood of food shortages actually occurring in the United States is uncertain, but the subject suggests serious thought be given to the possibility.

While we focus on future prices and availability of food there are now reported shortages of a critical specialty item, baby formula.    Just several weeks ago, it was reported that 40 to 50 percent of the top-selling baby formula products in the United States were out of stock at stores across the country.

Supply shortages were aggravated by a product recall of some brands. ⁽⁴⁾  To put this into perspective, a survey of 11,000 stores reported that 43% were sold out of baby formula. ⁽⁵⁾

Another report told of a parent’s experience in San Francisco.  Several months ago baby formula was difficult to find, but recently no baby formula was to be found at the typical stores such as Walgreens, Costco Target, and even some online sources were out of stock. ⁽⁶⁾

Baby formula shortage did not just occur over night.  The genesis was a whistleblower complaint to the FDA in October 2021 about concerns with Abbott Laboratories’ plant in Sturgis, Michigan.  The plant was shut down in February 2022 and remains closed.  If and when the plant re-opens, reports indicate that it may take as many as 10 weeks after production restarts before formula shows up on retail shelves. ⁽⁷⁾

These examples represent current shortages, not truly a risk by professional definitions.

Looking at risk, weather evidently has adversely affected the supply of oranges and other citrus products in Florida, with current projections of the 2022 harvest at levels not seen since 1938. ^{(8, 9)}  In 1940 the USA population was 132 million people, and the latest estimates for 2022 is 332 million people.

Can citrus production at 1938 levels meet the demands of 250% more people at an affordable price?

Might we consider baby formula and oranges to be “canaries in the coal mine”?

Crops have to be planted, nurtured until harvest, transported, processed, and delivered to retail outlets.  Livestock, whether to yield beef, pork, chicken, or eggs follows a similar process.  Every stage in this journey introduces uncertainty, i.e., risk.  Let’s explore some of these stages and conditions.

Fuel Stockpile: 

As of May 10, reports indicate that the East Coast diesel inventory is projected to reach less than three days demand – with a global diesel shortage expected to materialize in June 2022.  On top of supply shortage, diesel prices are rising to exorbitant rates.  Gasbuddy’s head of petroleum analysis said higher prices translate into more expensive goods.  Railroads and trucks run on diesel and diesel is used in farming, meaning increasing grocery prices due to rising fuel costs. ⁽¹⁰⁾

Stockpiles are reported now as the lowest on the East Coast since 1990.  Exports to Europe in response to bans on Russian sources are depleting US supplies. An explosion at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions plant in 2019 resulted in its closure.  This plant formerly supplied the entire East Coast.  Refineries mothballed their plants in 2020 – 2021 in response to low demand attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and stay-at-home orders.

Now, there is not sufficient diesel production remaining.   US refineries are maximizing diesel production, with a corresponding fall in gasoline inventories.  The result is predicted high gasoline prices beginning with the Memorial Day holiday. ⁽¹¹⁾

Fuel Conversion: 

There is more to the diesel story.  In 2020, oil refineries in the western part of the US were already converted into biofuel plants, conversion underway, or plans were laid to begin conversion.  Biofuel diesel is blended with petroleum-based diesel and there are some disadvantages which make a direct 100% substitution difficult.  Since biofuel uses tallow and cooking oil in its production, supply of these materials may not be sufficient outside of the California market. ⁽¹²⁾

One reported aspect of biofuel as it applies to diesel production is that biofuel depends almost entirely on food production to make the fuel. Food production in turn depends on traditional diesel fuel.  Effects of COVID-19 and changeover to biofuel may have been just bad timing. ⁽¹³⁾

Fertilizer: 

A report attributed to the Rockefeller Foundation president stated that a “massive, immediate food crisis” is on the horizon due to fertilizer disruptions resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war.  The crisis is predicted to begin “in the next six months” – or about September 2022. ⁽¹⁴⁾

CF Industries is the largest producer of urea and urea ammonium nitrate in North America.  It ships products to customers via Union Pacific rail from two locations, Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana and Port Neal Complex in Iowa.  CF Industries was informed on Friday, April 8, 2022, by Union Pacific that CF Industries will have to reduce its shipments almost 20%, almost certainly causing delays to fertilizer deliveries.  Lower crops yields may result if fertilizer is not applied at optimum time during growing cycle. ⁽¹⁵⁾

China, the largest phosphate producer, began restricting shipments to retain more for the home market.  Peru has a deficit of 180,000 metric tons of urea which may decrease output of corn, rice, and potatoes as much as 40%. ⁽¹⁶⁾

Farmers forced to cut back on fertilizer usage due to lack of availability and high prices.  The dilemma is how much farmers can reduce fertilizer and not adversely affect crop yields and quality.  This is a worldwide problem, from Brazil the world’s largest soybean producer, to rice farmers in the Philippines, and farmers in Costa Rica, Kenya, Peru, the United States and other countries.  Nitrogen-based fertilizer is used by wheat farmers.  But natural gas is the main component for nitrogen fertilizer, and shutdowns and shortages have driven prices up.  Less nitrogen means lower wheat crop yields. ⁽¹⁶⁾

There are some indications the fertilizer shortage may be a two-year problem according to Canada-based Nutrien Ltd.’s CEO.  In addition, another estimate is that it may take another two years to recover beyond that according to the Mosaic Company’s CEO. ⁽¹⁷⁾

Cyber Threat: 

The FBI issued a warning that ransomware actors might attack agricultural cooperatives during planting and harvesting seasons. Such attacks could negatively affect food supply.  The report cited ransomware attacks against six grain cooperatives in the Fall of 2021 and two attacks in early 2022.  Attacks if successful, disrupt the supply of seeds and fertilizer during the critical planting season. ⁽¹⁸⁾

Crop Diversion: 

A gasoline – ethanol 15% blend was authorized by the government for use during Summer 2022, intended to lower consumer gasoline prices.  The most common blend is 10%.  Bio-fuel is made with corn resulting in diversion of corn used in food products to bio-fuel.  Feed corn is used as livestock feed.  Less food for consumers and more expensive beef may result. ⁽¹⁹⁾

Rail: 

A lack of trains to move product is relatively widespread.  Major railroads such as Union Pacific, BNSF, Norfolk Southern and CSX all face labor shortages.  Norfolk Southern reportedly offers $5,000 hiring bonuses to new employees.  Some say labor shortages were due to aggressive cost cutting efforts by the railroads over the past several years, resulting in laying off 45,000 employees.  Even if people can be hired, the problem will not be solved immediately as training takes time.  Lack of rail capacity affects the western United States significantly, i.e., the movement of grain to mills resulting in halted or limited production of flour and animal feed.  Ethanol production is also negatively affected. ⁽²⁰⁾

Trucking:

Some estimates indicate more than 70% of all freight in the United States moves by truck.  Estimates by the American Trucking Association also indicate there is a shortage of 80,000 professional truck drivers now and this shortage is expected to increase to over 160,000 before the end of this decade.  Carriers have raised salaries to attract drivers, and in some cases substantially.  High demand, retirements, an aging workforce, and a hard lifestyle exacerbate the shortage.  There remains the question as to whether increasing salaries will be sufficient to lessen the shortage. ⁽²¹⁾

Disasters and Unusual Events: 

While seemingly unusual, and sure to fuel conspiracy theories, damage and destruction to food related storage and processing facilities has been noted by a number of information sources. ^{(22, 23, 24, 25)}

Fire at the Winston Weaver Company fertilizer plant in Winston-Salem, North Carolina on January 31, 2022.  The plant contained large amounts of ammonium nitrate.

Explosion at Shearer’s Foods in Hermiston, Oregon, in February 2022.

Fire at a large 1,000 employee Walmart distribution (logistics) center in Plainfield, Indiana on March 21, 2022.

Fire destroyed the Penobscot McCrum potato processing plan in Belfast, Maine, on March 24, 2022.

Four-alarm fire destroyed the Taylor Farms food processing (salad packaging) facility in Salinas, California on  April 13, 2022.  The plant employed approximately 1,000 people and processing portion of the plant was a total loss.

Fire destroyed the Azure Standards headquarters (food processing) in Dufur, OR, on April 22, 2022.

Fire at the General Mills food production facility in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on April 23, 2022.

Fire at the Perdue Farms grain processing facility in Chesapeake, Virginia, on April 30, 2022.

While these examples cited are few in number and may be concerning, they amount to less than one hundred of one percent when compared to the number of food processing plants in the US.  The USDA of 36, 486 of such plant in the US as of 2017. ⁽²⁶⁾

Inflation:  Trading Economics reported inflation rates at a 41-year high in the March – April 2022 timeframe.  Gasoline prices were slightly lower in March than April 2022, but still up over 40%.  Fuel oil increased more, now up 80.5%.  Food prices were up 9.4%, the most since April 1981.  The implication for food risk is that food prices are already rising and will most certainly rise even higher if, and when, shortages occur. ⁽²⁷⁾

Rural Urban Population Shift: 

In 1930, the percentage of the USA population was 56% in urban areas; and 44% in rural areas.   In comparison, in 2020 the urban population percentage was 83% and the rural percentage was 17%.  A larger percentage of the population (44%) were more likely food self-sufficient 90 years ago.  Now most of the USA population lives in urban areas.  They depend on grocery stores for food with the risk that food supply may not be as plentiful as before, and where rail, trucking, and fuel availability issues are in play as well. ^{(28, 29)}

War: 

The World Bank, at a Spring 2022 meeting, indicated that record food prices could affect millions of people resulting from price increases caused by the Russia – Ukraine war.  These two countries reportedly supply approximately 30% of wheat and 20% of corn to the global market. ⁽³⁰⁾

Avian Influenza: 

Bloomberg reported on May 6, 2002, that a bird flu virus is infecting chickens and turkeys.  Deaths already reported at 37 million birds in the United States, and more losses are expected in June 2022 as flocks are culled.  The outbreak was detected in January 2022 and spread to 32 states.  Of the 37 million chickens and turkeys lost so far, 29 million egg-laying hens were lost, about 10% of the total flock of 300 million hens.  The cost of a dozen eggs is up 23% in April from March 2022. ⁽³¹⁾

Weather:  I

f fertilizer shortage was not enough, adverse weather in the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley has storms, high winds, blizzards, and flooding – delaying planting which may reduce crop yields amid other pressures in the supply chain. ⁽³²⁾

Worker Productivity. 

Worker productivity has been declining at historic rates, the fastest decline since 1947.  At the same time, labor costs have been rising, also at historic rates.  The fastest rise in 40 years.  This is on top of price inflation rising at the fastest level in over 40 years. ⁽³³⁾

Is this risk real? 

If you are a professional risk practitioner, or involved in farming, transportation, the restaurant or grocery business, food just might be the mother of all risks (“MOAR”).  Just remember, risk is a future uncertain event, and we just do not know at this writing if food will be in short supply beyond what has already occurred, how much prices might continue to rise to, or if any shortages will be affect the entire United States or regional.

Information on a diverse set of topics and from a variety of sources reviewed serve to mitigate information risk, e.g., the chance that the data about food shortage presented here are wrong.

However, the densely populated East Coast which is facing diesel shortages may see food shortages before other regions of the country.

The important question remains – given reasonably reliable data, what is the probability of once in two-generation great food catastrophe?

Whether there will be a domestic food supply crisis in the foreseeable future remains uncertain.

Information reviewed suggests the probability of a domestic food crisis is increasing higher over time – not certain, but with a possibility not seen before.

The risk velocity appears to be high too, meaning the risk might begin to be realized soon, within  2022.

With the already increasing food prices, any shortages will certainly aggravate the situation, placing those with lower incomes especially in peril.

A wildcard is if enough people become concerned about food shortages, panic buying will hasten the food crisis.

There is also the probability that food supply issues will work themselves out and disruptions might be small and of limited duration.

Don’t take our word for it, investigate the conditions described and plan accordingly.  We shall know soon enough.  All risk is personal.

References:

1. Michael Yon, considered to be the most experienced living American war correspondent, has often cited “conditions” as enablers of undesirable events.   https://michaelyon.com/.
2. Mark Twain. https://www.quotemaster.org/Famine.
3. World on precipice of food crisis: Goya CEO.  https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6305154401001/?playlist_id=3166411554001.  @MorningsMaria @FoxBusiness.
4. Gina Martinez. REVEALED: The states and metro areas where stocks of baby formula have fallen to as low as 50% amid national shortage: Parents struggling to feed their babies slam ‘disgusting’ price gauging with tins going for TRIPLE on eBay.  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10791787/Stores-12-states-12-metro-areas-40-higher-stock-baby-formula.html.
5. Joseph Alton MD. What To Do About Baby Formula Shortages.  May 11, 2022.  https://www.doomandbloom.net/what-to-do-about-baby-formula-shortages/.
6. Jack Phillips. Nationwide Baby Formula Shortage Hits “Shocking” Levels, Sparking Panic Among Parents.  https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/05/06/nationwide-baby-formula-shortage-hits-shocking-levels-sparking-panic-among-parents/.
7. Daily Mail. Abbott warns it will take TEN WEEKS to get baby formula products on shelves when FDA finally allows its biggest factory to reopen as crisis for parents across US trying to feed their kids deepens.   May 13, 2022.  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10806997/Abbott-warns-TEN-WEEKS-baby-formula-products-shelves-FDA-reopens-factory.html.
8. News Service of Florida. Florida citrus crop headed for lowest yield in decades.  https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida/2022/04/08/florida-citrus-crop-headed-for-lowest-yield-in-decades/.
9. US Department of Agriculture. Citrus production by Type States and United States.  https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Florida/Publications/Citrus/Citrus_Forecast/2021-22/cit0322.pdf.
10. Michael Snyder. Now We Are Being Warned That Shortages Of Diesel Fuel & Electricity Are Coming In The Months Ahead. May 10, 2022.  https://thewashingtonstandard.com/now-we-are-being-warned-that-shortages-of-diesel-fuel-electricity-are-coming-in-the-months-ahead/.
11. Lucia Kassai.   NYC Billionaire Catsimatidis Warns of Looming East Coast Diesel Rationing.  May 11, 2022.  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nyc-billionaire-catsimatidis-warns-looming-175931402.html.
12. The latest sign of a worldwide energy transition: Massive oil refineries across the western U.S. are being converted into biofuel plants.  August 13, 2020.  https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2020/8/13/massive-oil-refiners-are-turning-biofuel-plants-we/.
13. Mike Adams. DIESELGEDDON – America’s diesel supply on verge of catastrophic collapse, leading to HALTING of food, fertilizer, coal and energy.  May 11, 2022.  https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-05-11-dieselgeddon-americas-diesel-supply-on-verge-of-catastrophic-collapse.html.
14. David Icke. Rockefeller Foundation President Starts Countdown Until All Hell Breaks Loose. April 24, 2022.  https://davidicke.com/2022/04/24/rockefeller-foundation-president-starts-countdown-until-all-hell-breaks-loose/.
15. Manuel Petitat. Fertilizer giant CF Industries begs Biden to allow shipments for Spring planting, to prevent food shortages.  APRIL 26, 2022.  https://strangesounds.org/2022/04/fertilizer-giant-cf-industries-begs-biden-to-allow-shipments-for-spring-planting-to-prevent-food-shortages.html.
16. Elizabeth Elkin and Samuel Gebre, Bloomberg News. Can the World Feed Itself? Historic Fertilizer Crunch Threatens Food Security.  May 1, 2022.  https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/can-the-world-feed-itself-historic-fertilizer-crunch-threatens-food-security-1.1759742.
17. Tyler Durden. World’s Largest Fertilizer Company Warns Crop Nutrient Disruptions Through 2023.  May 5, 2022.  https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/worlds-largest-fertilizer-company-warns-crop-nutrient-disruptions-through-2023.
18. Federal Bureau of Investigation. Private Industry Notification.  Cyber Ransomware Attacks on Agricultural Cooperatives.  20 April 2022.  https://www.ic3.gov/Media/News/2022/220420-2.pdf
19. Jeff Couere. COMING TO AMERICA: FOOD INSECURITY IS INEVITABLE.  April 28, 2022.  https://canadafreepress.com/article/coming-to-america-food-insecurity-is-inevitable.
20. Josh Funk. Associated Press. Freight railroads work to resolve service problems, delays.  April 12, 2022.   https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/politics/2022/04/12/freight-railroads-work-to-resolve-service-problems-delays/.
21. Starpoint Screening. SHORTAGE OF TRUCK DRIVERS CONTINUES IN 2022.  March 16, 2022.  https://www.starpointscreening.com/blog/shortage-of-truck-drivers-continues-in-2022/.
22. Jeff Reynolds. Can Someone Explain Why So Many Food Processing Plants Are Blowing Up?  April 23, 2022.  https://www.americanpartisan.org/2022/04/whats-with-all-the-food-processing-plants-blowing-up-lately/.
23. Web staff. Chesapeake Fire responds to industrial fire at Perdue Farms facility. April 30, 2022.  https://www.wtkr.com/news/chesapeake-fire-responds-to-industrial-fire-at-perdue-farms-facility.
24. Michael Snyder. Why Are So Many Mysterious Fires Happening At Food Processing Facilities All Across The United States?   April 24, 2022.  http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/why-are-so-many-mysterious-fires-happening-at-food-processing-facilities-all-across-the-united-states/.
25. Michael Snyder. Can anyone explain why absolutely massive fires just keep erupting again and again at critical facilities all over America?  April 21, 2022.  http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a-list-of-16-major-fires-that-have-occurred-at-key-food-industry-facilities-in-the-u-s-since-the-start-of-2022/.
26. https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-markets-prices/processing-marketing/manufacturing/.
27. April 2022 Data – 1914-2021 Historical – May Forecast. Accessed 14 May 2022. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi.
28. Campbell Gibson. American Demographic History Chartbook: 1790 to 2010.  Figure 2-2. Percent Distribution of the Population by Urban-Rural and Farm Residence for the United States: 1790 to 2010.  Accessed 14 May 2022.  http://demographicchartbook.com/index.php/chapter-2-urban-rural-and-farm-population-and-large-cities/2-2-percent-distribution-of-the-population-by-urban-rural-and-farm-residence-for-the-united-states-1790-to-2010/.
29. Macro Trends. Data Source:  World Bank.  S. Rural Population 1960-2022.  Accessed 14 May 2022.  2020 urban percentage 83%; rural percentage 17%.   https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/rural-population.
30. Katabella Roberts (Epoch Times). World Bank Chief Warns Of Food Crisis Due To Russia-Ukraine Conflict.  April 22, 2022.   https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/world-bank-chief-warns-food-crisis-due-russia-ukraine-conflict.
31. Zijia Song. Egg Prices Surge in US Inflation Data as Bird Flu Wipes Out Hens.      In April, egg prices rose the most of all consumer products.    Avian influenza has killed close to 10% of the nation’s hens.  May 11, 2022.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-11/egg-prices-surge-in-us-inflation-data-as-bird-flu-wipes-out-hens?sref=6uww027M.
32. Tyler Durden. Farm Crisis Hits Dakotas As Floods Delay Plantings, May Trigger US Food Shortage.  April 26, 2022.   https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/farm-crisis-hits-dakotas-floods-delay-plantings-may-trigger-us-food-shortage.  See also:  COM – Weather. Made. Simple.
33. Jeff Cox. Worker output fell 7.5% in the first quarter, the biggest decline since 1947.  May 5, 2022.  https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/labor-productivity-fell-7point5percent-in-the-first-quarter-the-fastest-rate-since-1947.html.

Bio:

His career has been enriched through education, training and experience beginning in the early 1970’s as an investigator, and later as economist, statistician, operations researcher, adjunct professor, business owner, newsletter publisher, consultant, quality award examiner, risk and QA manager, and contractor.

The common thread throughout this time has been gathering, reducing, assessing, summarizing, and presenting findings to enable decision making.  With the arrival of COVID-19, it was recognized that methods and tools used for decision making in a business setting, particularly involving risk, can be adopted to individuals.

Toney is also an aspiring business fiction writer where his future works will be published on vucanites.com.