Engineering dynamics tells us to pay attention to “potential energy”. That’s the energy that will be released if some restraining condition is removed. A simple example would be a glass sitting on the edge of a table. If the glass is knocked off the table, the glass crashes to the floor – turning potential energy into kinetic energy.

A psychological source of potential energy is repeated or chronic frustration. It might be called “pent-up energy.” We might recognize this energy as anger.  Anger unleashed in an unhealthy way can be called murder, terrorism or war.

I posit that potential energy is an identifiable form of risk.

A hierarchy of risk

Let’s first look at relatively widely accepted forms of potential-energy based risk.

I’m looking forward to a dinner with a friend: potential energy. That is released with a nice meal, great conversation, and a deepening relationship.

A new employee has potential energy. They must go through a learning curve which is a source of stress. If all goes well, that energy empowers the team.

We can’t eliminate the pull of gravity in flying. But careful attention to thousands of details makes passenger air travel safer than driving or riding a bicycle.

Now consider some middle ground where the risk might cause trouble.

An unanswered phone call raises the possibility of resentment or lack of coordination. Usually no big deal.

Storing left-over paint in the house can be a fire hazard, especially if a furnace is nearby.

A petroleum pipeline might leak and cause environmental damage. One could argue the risk is less for a pipeline than a tanker. But that relatively small potential near water turned the Standing Rock Sioux Nation against the Dakota Access Pipeline. That risk cost pipeline investors several billion dollars.

Now let’s look at situations where high levels of potential and pent-up energy carry the risk of disaster.

Abused children often grow up to be abusing adults. Some children of abuse become murderers.

Palestinians have been denied the right to self governance since the founding of Israel in 1948 (actually years before that). That source of resentment fuels Hamas and likely its successor. That situation indefinitely undermines Israel’s security.

Oil, gas, and coal reserves already under the control of fossil fuel companies represent a huge risk to our climate.

Mitigation

We cannot eliminate risk arising from potential energy. But we can anticipate it, respond constructively, and reduce the risk.

Moving the glass away from the edge of the table reduces risk. Likewise, people can move inland, and to higher ground. Still, the latent potential for an uncontrolled release of kinetic energy remains.

Mostly, people and governments treat symptoms and build walls to deal with high potential energy. Explanations. Insurance policies. Dikes. Jails. Surveillance systems. Counter weapons. These measures generally do not reduce the potential energy.

Conversely, we can address the potential energy itself.

• Give employees training and compassion.
• Give our old paint to a recycling program. If you don’t have one, start one.
• Parents can, with counseling, break the cycle of abuse.
• Israel can accept Palestinian independence (a two-state solution).
• Constrain the demand for coal, oil and natural gas resource extraction.
  • Avoid buying fossil-fueled vehicles.
  • Demand widely-accessible charging networks for electric vehicles.
  • Frequent businesses with zero net emission strategies (with 2030 objectives) on their websites. For examples, check out IKEA and Tillimook.
  • Maintain incentives on solar, wind and geothermal energy
  • Cap-and-trade carbon emissions, as the China, the European Union, Quebec and California have done.
  • Reduce demand for fossil fuels with climate neutral action plans for your state, municipality, and self.

While it may be difficult to reduce the potential energy in a given situation, we must accept that risk of unmitigated potential energy is high. We are already witnessing predictable hurricanes, global record temperatures, drought – and war.

This article was inspired by “Surprises: As the Realization of Risk,” by Malcolm Peart in CERM® Risk Insights.

BIO:

Jon Biemer is registered as a professional Mechanical Engineer in the state of California and a member of the Society of Environmental Journalists. He has managed energy efficiency programs for Bonneville Power Administration and developed the Environmental Handprint concept. He and his wife eco-remodeled their home and turned their lawn into a food forest. Jon Biemer’s upcoming book is Our Journey to Sustainability: How Everyday Heroes Make a Difference. His previous book is Our Environmental Handprints: Recover the Land, Reverse Global Warming, Reclaim the Future. Both books can be purchased from on-line booksellers.