n September 2024 the International Organization for Standardizations (ISO) published the results of its 33^rd annual certification results. This includes results for ISO 9001, its quality management system certification. ISO 9001 is the largest and flagship of ISO’s certifications. Two other certifications with the highest number of certifications are ISO14001 Environmental and ISO 45001 Occupational Health.

Organizations, public or private, which want ISO certifications hire outside auditors to examine compliance with ISO standards. The information in the annual survey is gathered by certification bodies who oversee the auditors. ISO reports on the number of each certification reported by the certification bodies.

The 2023 results have been impacted by the Chinese certification body not reporting any certifications. Consequently, the number of ISO 9001certifications worldwide is down to 827,048. This is a decline of 428,000 certifications, or 33.8% from 2022.

This article looks at the certification changes from 2020 to 2023 for ISO 9001, 14001 and 45001. Also discussed will be the status of ISO 9001:2015. Each standard is supposed to be updated every five years. According to the convention, ISO 9001:2015 should have been updated by 2022.  It has not been. The why will be examined.

(For a more comprehensive analysis of just the ISO 9001 certification numbers, check out Oxebridge Quality Resources.)

Certification Change by Certificate

Unlike previous years, where ISO certification numbers have been relatively comparable from one year to the next, this year they are not. This year ISO provided no historical comparison. Instead, it provided the number of certificates from providers for 2022 and 2023 combined, the increase or decrease number from 2022 and the percentage change. Table 1 below shows the increase or decrease from 2022 to 2023, and the percentage change for 9001, 140001 and 45001 by selected countries.

While these are selected countries, they show a mixed trend for the three certifications. To a degree, the numbers also show a decline in 9001 certifications for major industrial countries. For the United States and Germany, this may reflect the outsourcing of manufacturing. They also show a proportional increase in 14001 and 45001 certifications.

Oxebridge Quality Resources estimates, using “stabilized data”, the United States lost over 2,700 certificates between 2022 and 2023. Based on this analysis, the total 9001 certifications in the United States are 26,833.  This is substantially below the 2006 peak of around 45,000.

With respect to the other two certifications, the countries with the largest percentage increases in 14001 (Environmental) and 45001 (Occupational Health) were Italy with 14% each, Saudi Arabia with 26% and 29%, the United Kingdom with 10% and 8% and the United States with 3% and 15% respectively.

Unfortunately, ISO 9001 is the dominant certification worldwide. The number of 9001 certifications far exceeds the numbers for 14001 and 45001. Combined it would take years of consistent growth for 14001 and 45001 certifications to reach 9001’s level. Without 9001 certifications, it is problematic if ISO could be economically viable. Consequently, it is important to understand the status of ISO 9001.

ISO 9001 What Is Going On?

The ISO 9001 certifications have seen a steady decline in countries like the United States. Worldwide the certification numbers have grown over the years because of China. With China not reporting the decline was precipitous, 33.8%.

It is not known why the Chinese did not provide data for 2023. Nor is it known if China will provide data for 2024. If it provides numbers for 2024, will it include 2023’s as well.  This uncertainty and ISO’s decision not to publish the actual numbers for comparative purposes raises the issue of validity. How much trust can one place in the ISO numbers?

Another concern is the quality of the 9001 certifications. Milt Dench in his book “The Rise and Impending Demise of ISO 9001”, discusses the problem of the decline in the quality of the 9001 audits. Similarly, Oxebridge Quality Resources has raised issues about individual company 9001 certifications. In addition, in a recent blog, Oxebridge Quality Resources indicates that the compensation for 9001 auditors has not risen for several years. This is a problem, if as is suspected, auditors are cutting corners to make end meet.  Further, if the quality of the audit is not good, how meaningful is having a 9001 certification?

These are serious structural and quality concerns.  There are also process issues. These process issues have caused delays in the revision.  The process issues are summarized below.

1. Initial rejections of any major revisions. Before a revision is made, ISO surveys each country to see if a revision is needed. Four times the majority voted not to have any major revisions. On the fifth time, ISO finally got a majority to authorize a revision.
2. The initial ISO 9001 revision committee draft was cut and paste. The only significant change was to make the measurement of quality objectives “optional” rather than “mandatory”. If one is not measuring quality objectives what is the use of the quality management system? In addition, the revision sought to insert a small business guide. The guide had not been selling well for ISO as a standalone. Its insertion would make it mandatory for small businesses, but no one else. These changes were not received well.
3. ISO next sought to ensure that the revision draft aligned with the requirements of ISO “smart standard”. This would make the standard machine readable. This would facilitate its use by Artificial Intelligence (AI). In addition, the standard would be sold as a subscription. However, if one cancelled the subscription, access to the standard would be lost. This was not received well either.
4. Many of the authors and consultants on the standard recognized that the push for AI compatibility could cost them their jobs. Consequently, they objected.

The expectation is that the revised 9001 will appear in September 2025. What it will include is uncertain.

Conclusion

The 33^rd annual ISO certification survey highlights several problems. First, China did not report number for 2023. Consequently, ISO 9001 certification number dropped by 33.8%. In addition, ISO did not provide any comparative data between 20022 and 2023. That combined with China’s lack of numbers and problems associated with the quality of certifications, raises concern about the accuracy of any of the ISO numbers and the utility of having a 9001 certification.

With respect of the ISO flagship, 900:2015 the data shows a decline in the United States by 2,700 certifications. Using “normalized data” Oxebridge Quality Resources estimates that current ISO 9001:2015 certifications are now at 26,833. This is well below 45,000 certifications in 2006.

Originally, ISO 9001:2015 was due for revision in 2022. Despite delays, a revision of ISO 9001:2015 is expected in September 2025. Whether it will be AI compatible, modular and subscription based with quality management goals optional as opposed to required has yet to be determined.

Bio:

James J. Kline has a PhD from Portland State University. He has worked for federal, state, and local governments. He has consulted on economic, quality and workforce development issues. He has authored numerous articles on quality and risk management. His books include “Enterprise Risk Management in Government: Implementing ISO 31000:2018”, “Risk Based Thinking in Government” and “Quality Disrupted”.