In all human history a few important inventions have changed the way people work and live.  Among these key inventions are airplanes, automobiles, electric power, and personal computers.  Airplanes allowed people and products to move from city to city and county to county in only a few hours.  Automobiles allowed people to work and shop miles from where they lived.  Electric power allowed people to work and entertain at night as well as bringing out a host of new appliances such as refrigerators and air-conditioning.

Personal computers allow people to communicate with friends and companies anywhere in the world almost instantly.  Computers also allow us to purchase goods from online retailers.   Computers also operate medical devices, telephones, and electronic books.

A full list of the topics where computers have had an impact on our daily lives totals over 125 items.  This short article deals with only 12 major impacts to date, and then considers 6 future impacts over the next 20 years such as self-driving vehicles and 3D printed houses.

Another basic issue is what kinds of work will people do when computers have taken over many complicated jobs in fields such as home construction and manufacturing?  Next it is interesting to consider the industries where computers in the future will either cause decreases in working populations or increases.   T

At the start of 2023 there are about 131,800,000 workers in the United States.    The most important question raised by computers is whether the working population will increase or decrease by 2123.

The industries that are likely to experience a decrease in workers are those where computers are best able to replace human beings.  A sample of industries where computers are displacing human workers include:

Industries Facing Declines in Workers Due to Computers

• Aircraft manufacturing
• Automotive manufacturing
• Durable goods manufacturing
• Clerical work
• Delivery services (replaced by self-driving vehicles)
• Electronics manufacturing
• Home construction
• Retail sales staffs
• Taxi drivers (replaced by self-driving vehicles)
• Translators to other languages (replaced by computer translation)

Industries Facing Increases in Workers Due to Computers

• Arts and graphic design
• Authorship of books and journal articles
• Computer games
• Computer manufacturing
• Defense engineering of new weapons systems
• Law (new kinds of litigation for damages caused by robotic devices)
• Music composition
• Robotic device engineering
• Software engineering
• Research (due to the need to predict other disruptive technologie)

Industries Where Computers Have Provided the Greatest Benefits

• Authorship of books and journal articles
• Defense and military preparedness
• Education
• Government operations
• Medical practices
• Musical composition
• Real estate
• Research
• Retail sales
• Travel

Let us now consider today’s impact of computers on daily living:

Twelve current topics where computers impact daily life:

1. Authorship of books and magazine articles
2. Cell phones
3. Credit cards
4. E-books
5. E-mail
6. Handicapped aids such as cochlear implants
7. Online purchasing from retailers such as Amazon
8. Social networks such as Facebook and LinkedIn
9. Streaming movies, news, music, etc.
10. Warfare
11. Web browsing
12. Zoom meetings in place of live meetings.

Six future topics where computers will impact daily life:

1. 3D Printed houses.
2. 3D interactive books.
3. Scientific research.
4. Integrated traffic controls for urban areas
5. Self-driving vehicles
6. Space exploration.

Authorship of Books and Magazine Articles

Word processing machines evolved from typewriters.  In 1964 IBM produced a typewriter that had magnetic tape for recording and playing back typed pages.   This might be viewed as the precursor of modern word processing.    In the 1970’s several companies introduced machines that had a CRT tube for displaying text combined with magnetic tape or disks for storing typed materials.   Some of the companies included Wang, Digital Equipment (DEC), Xerox, and IBM.  It is a matter of historical interest that in the 1970’s about one third of the office jobs in America were women who were typists or secretaries.  The arrival of word processing systems would simplify these jobs and possibly reduce the number of clerical personnel needed to run offices.

Using a word procssor for typing text was only part of the full set of capabilities needed for home offices.  It was also necessary to have printing abilities.  Of course when word processors were based on IBM Selectric typewriters the printing was part of the system.   But for CRT-based word processors that had only keyboards separate printers were needed.  The first printers were dot-matrix printers which were noisy and slow.  Eventually these were replaced by ink-jet printers which are quiet and fast.

Today in 2023 the great majority of novels, non-fiction books, and other forms of text are created by authors in their own home offices equipped with computers and ink-jet printers.   Modern printers communicate with computers via wireless connections so several family members with their own personal computers can share one printer.  In all likelihood home offices have more than doubled the numbers of books written each year by speeding up all aspects of writing.

Word processors also feature helpful aids such as automatic spell checking and offering suggestions for the next word in a sentence.   Documents can also be transmitted to publishers as email attachments rather than mailing paper manuscripts.

Also the vast majority of manuscipts are submitted to publishers either as attached files or “portable document format”  (PDF) files.

Cell Phones

The first cell phone was invented in 1973 by John Mitchell and Martin Cooper of Motorola.   Before cell phones, which operated on telephone networks, there were hand-held radio phones used by troops during World War II and known as “walkie talkies.”    The first commercial cell phone network was developed in Japan in 1979 by Nippon Electric.

About 15 years after the cell phone was invented Tim Berners-Lee developed the world-wide web in 1989.   Once the web became available cell phones could communicate globally.

Today in 2023 cell phones have expanded beyond voice telephone calls and now include flashlights, the ability to take photos, the ability to stream music, and the ability to receive and send e-mail and text messages.

Cell phones can also show news and get local or remote weather reports.  Cell phones can also download and display e-books, although the small screen is harder to see than a normal e-book reader.   Essentially a cell phone is a small computer that is always connected to the world wide web.  The market expanded rapidly when Apple launched the I-Phone in 2007.

The original cell phones weighed over a pound and had small monochrome screens.  Today’s phones weigh a few ounces and have full-color screens.

The Pew Research Center has found that about 97% of Americans own cell phones in 2023.   Other research shows that Americans use cell phones over 5 hours per day.   No other appliance in human history has had such widespread ownership and such intense daily usage as cell phones.

Credit Cards and Credit Card Processing

Credit cards were invented in 1950 by a businessman named Frank McNamara.   He lived in New York and forgot his wallet when going out to dinner.  Frank and his business partner, Ralph Schneider, started the Diner’s Club credit card as a way of paying without cash.

McNamara was able to give the restaurant a hand-written note promising to come in the next day to pay for the dinner bill.   This gave McNamara and his partner the idea to start the “Diner’s Club” which was the first commercial credit card.  This was not a universal card but was restricted to 27 participating restaurants in New York.

The use of Diners Club cards expanded from 200 of the founders’ friends and colleagues to over 42,000 members.  Use also expanded from restaurants to other kinds of businesses, and also expanded from America to other countries:  The United Kingdom, Canada, Cuba, and Mexico.

The idea of credit cards was soon noticed by banks.  The first bank-issued card was by the Bank of America in 1966.  The BankAmerica card changed its name to Visa.

The first credit cards were carboard.  The first plastic credit card was by American Express in 1969.  Magnetic strips were added to credit cards by an IBM engineer named Forrest Perry.  He was aided by his wife who used an iron to melt the magnetic strip into the plastic card.

As credit card usage expanded so did credit card fraud or using stolen cards.   To help eliminate credit card fraud cards were made using embedded chips instead of magnetic strips.  The chips also required an identifying pin number to complete the transaction.

As an additional security measure users of credit cards were assigned a credit score called FICO.  This is a three-digit number between 300 and 850 that evaluates a credit card owners purchasing and paying habits.

Today in 2023 data shows that about 83% of Americans have at least one credit card.  Many have multiple credit cards such as Visa, MasterCard, American Express, etc.   Credit card usage is so common that special cases have been developed that can hold over a dozen cards.

In case credit cards are stolen or false charges are made the credit card companies have 24-hour customer support operations.

What allowed credit cards to change from local cards for a few stores and restaurants was the development of the world-wide-web and the development of large computer data bases in order to keep track of all credit card owners and purchases in real time.

E-Books and E-Book Readers

The electronic book or E-book was invented in 1971 by Michael S. Hart who was a student at the University of Illinois at the time.    The research lab at the University had a Xerox mainframe computer.   The first text Hart produced was the Declaration of Independence.      Hart also launched the non-profit Project Gutenberg to digitize books.

In 1993 a company called Bibliobytes began to market e-books.    In 1999 Simon and Schuster began to market electronic versions of selected paper books.    However the e-book market did not begin to compete seriously with paper books until Amazon launched the Kindle in 2007.   In order to reach millions of customers e-books needed a compact portable e-book reader, rather than just reading e-books on computer screens.

The main advantages of e-book readers versus paper books are these:

• Many books can be stored in one light-weight device.
• The screens are backlit and can be read at night.
• E-books can be purchased via computer 24 hours per day from any location.
• E-books are often less expensive than the same book in paper format.
• E-books can be borrowed from many libraries.

Today in 2023 Pew Research states that ownership in America of at least one reader is about 50%.  The original e-books had monochrome screens and were only used for book reading.  Today some e-book readers such as Amazon Kindle Fire have full-color screens and earphone jacks and can also be used to stream movies or even browse the web.

Basically an e-book reader is a small special-purpose computer embedded in a light weight portable device with screens that are similar in size to many paper books.

E-Mail

Electronic mail or E-mail was invented in 1971 by Ray Tomlinson.    In a larger context E-mail was a feature of ARPANET, one of the first networks that linked together thousands of computers.  In 1976 Queen Elizabeth of England received and sent and received e-mails from Dr Ferenc Kumin, the Ambassador from Hungary. The user name assigned to her was HME2 for “her majesty Elizabeth 2.”

Once e-mails became widely available it did not take long for merchants and advertisers to start using e-mail to reach potential customers.   The name given to the unsolicited emails from advertisers is “spam” based on a potted meat product.    The term “spam” originated in 1978 when Gary Thurek of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) sent an unsolicited e-mail to all Arpanet users announcing a new product.

It was not until 1992 that e-mail messages could include pictures or photos as well as text messages.   Later in 2002 e-mail was added as a feature to Smart Phones, which allows users to get e-mails at any time of day in any location without needing to be sitting at a computer.

In 2004 Google introduced Gmail, which included dividing emails into segments such as primary, promotions, and social.   When this system works well personal messages from friends show up in primary, ads show up in promotion, and requests to join networks such as Linkedin show up in social.

Today in 2023 statistics show that about 95% of Americans use email.   The only age groups that don’t use e-mail daily are children and the aged, or those who are too poor to own a computer or a cell phone.

Today in 2023 e-mail is almost universal.  Some of the major e-mail service providers include:

1. Gmail
2. Outlook
3. AOL mail
4. Yahoo mail
5. Hotmail
6. Titan mail
7. iCloud mail
8. Proton mail
9. Zoho mail
10. Yandex mail
11. GMX mail

A study by McKinsey reported that about 28% of daily work time is spent reading or sending e-mails.   E-mail provides almost instant contact to friends, colleagues, and business associates in any country in the world at any time of day or night.

Computer Aids for the Handicapped

Over the past 50 years computers have shrunk from large machines that occupied a whole room to tiny devices that weigh only a fraction of an ounce.   Tiny microcomputers that have low power and long battery life have enabled a huge variety of new aids for the handicapped.   Among the most widespread uses of computers for the handicapped are:

1. Hearing aids for those with hearing loss.
2. Cochlear implants for the deaf.
3. Text to speech conversion for the blind.
4. Text to braille conversion for the blind.
5. Voice to braille conversion for the blind
6. Translations among natural languages with spoken outputs.
7. Translations among natural languages with printed outputs.
8. Voice recognition for computer commands.
9. Blood pressure and respiratory activity built into smart watches.
10. Mobility scooters for the elderly.
11. Cardio defibrillators,
12. Pacemakers
13. Ventricular assist devices
14. Intraocular lenses for vision problems
15. Artificial hands with moving fingers

There are also assistive devices that don’t use computers such as electric toothbrushes for those with limited hand strength.  Assistive devices can be purchased locally from stores that specialize in them, or they can be purchased on-line from dealers such as Amazon as shown in the next section.

On-line Purchasing from Retailers

For hundreds of years products were sold to consumers in stores.   Some stores became successful and opened chains of stores in many cities such as Sears Roebuck and JC Penny.   These stores eventually coalesced into shopping malls with dozens of retail stores surrounded by smaller stores that sold food or drinks or offered entertainment such as movies.    Some large shopping malls in places like California had over 1000 stores in many blocks of buildings.

In order to reach remote customers who might live too far away from the stores or malls for convenient access, the major chain stores such as Sears Roebuck sent catalogs by mail to thousands of possible customers.   These catalogs had order forms for various products that could be mailed back with payment by paper checks.   The products were delivered by the U.S. Post Office or by other carriers such as FedEx.

The first instance of using computers and the internet for shopping was started in 1979 in the United Kingdom by a man named Michael Aldrich.   Later in 1992 a book company called Book Stacks began to offer books to customers who called in by phone.  Later the company switched to computer orders.

In 1995 another book company, Amazon, began online marketing.   Today in 2023 Amazon is the largest on-line vendor in the world and the products marketed are no longer limited to books.  Today Amazon sells almost every kind of product including appliances, assistive devices for the handicapped,  books, clothes, computers,  electronic devices such as stereos, food, jewelry, movies, and many others products.

In 2007 Amazon started Amazon Prime, which featured rapid delivery.   Amazon has its own fleet of delivery vans and has become famous for taking photographs of boxes or envelopes when they are delivered and emailing them to customers.   Amazon also follows up with queries as to whether the customer was happy with the product and the delivery.

E-commerce depends upon secure transactions using credit cards, since cash payments and paper checks are not possible for remote online stores.

Some of the major ecommerce vendors in 2023 include:

1. Amazon
2. EBay
3. Apple
4. Walmart
5. Ikea
6. Home Depot
7. Best Buy
8. Costco
9. Target
10. Temu

Today Amazon is the number one ecommerce retailer and gets over 2 billion visits per day.   Ecommerce has become a market staple and would not be possible without the underlying technologies of computers and the world wide web.

 Social Networks such as LinkedIn and Facebook

Social networks are organized groups of people who share common interests and enjoy chatting with others who have the same interests.   Some of the most widespread kinds of social networks are those for writers and authors, for computer users, for business and technology executives who often use LinkedIn, and for those who enjoy chatting at random who often use Facebook.\

Probably the most famous social network is Facebook because of the 2010 movie called “The Social Network” which detailed the start of Facebook.  This film starred Jesse Eisenberg as Mark Zukerberg, the Facebook founder.

Some of the major social networks in America include:

1. Facebook
2. Instagram
3. LinkedIn
4. Twitter
5. Snapchat
6. Google Messenger
7. Reddit
8. Pinterest
9. WhatsAp
10. Tumbler

One curious phenomena about social networks and computer technology companies in general is their preference for strange names such as Amazon, Google, Reddit, TikTok, and Twitter.  This is very different from older technology companies such as Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) and International Business Machines (IBM).

As of 2023 over 50% of adult Americans use one or more social networks to communicate with colleagues or friends.

The many kinds of social networks in America include:

• Author and Publishing groups
• Computer usage groups such as the Sarasota Technology Users’ Group
• Law enforcement groups
• Legal groups
• Medical practitioner groups
• Political groups

There is often a hierarchy of social network organizations for specific fields.  Taking authorship and writing as an example, the associations range from international to local:

 Author and Publishing Associations

While authors often work alone, there are hundreds of local associations of authors and dozens of national and international associations.    These associations are helpful to authors by reviewing manuscripts and discussing books in progress.   The large national and international associations also help to protect copyrights and the rights of authors.   Local associations often meet monthly either face to face or via Zoom, or by both at the same time.

International Publishing Association (IPA)

This organization was formed in France in 1896 but is now located in Geneva, Switzerland.  The IPA is a federation of dozens of national publishing associations from many countries.  The IPA opposes censorship and supports international copyrights.   The IPA also sponsors large book fairs and helps to provide free books for those in need.  A major purpose of the IPA is to consolidate information on the many national and local laws and regulations that affect copyrights and publishing.

National Publishing Associations

There are publishing associations in all countries.   An umbrella group in the United States is the American Association of Publishers (AAP).  This organization represents about 250 book and magazine publishers in the United States.   There are similar national publishing associations in most other countries.  One of the purposes of the AAP is to keep track of publishing revenues at a national level.

Regional and Local Publishing and Author Associations

There are dozens of regional and local publishing associations and hundreds of author associations in the United States.   These either deal with geographic regions such as the Pacific Northwest or with types of publishing such as travel magazines.   Some samples in alphabetic order include the Colorado Independent Publishers Association, the Connecticut Authors and Publishers Association, the Florida Authors and Publishers  Association, and the Minnesota Book Publishers Roundtable.

State Writer Associations

The larger national and international publishing associations are mainly concerned with legal and copyright issues and with the business of publishing.   The state associations are concerned with the actual craft of writing and with providing reviews and encouragement to local authors.   Every state in America has at least one writer association.  At the state level can be found the Florida Writers Association, the Colorado Writers Association, the Association of Rhode Island Authors (ARIA), and many others.

Local Writer Associations

All of the major cities in America have at least one writers association and some have more than one.    For example Sarasota, Florida has The Sarasota Creative Writers Meetup, the Sarasota Fiction Writers, Sisters in Crime, Mote Ranch Writing Group, Florida Writers Association Sarasota Branch, SRQ Horror, Sci Fi, and Fantasy Writers. and Wordier than Thou.  There may also be others.

If Sarasota has half a dozen local writer and author groups, the same is true for all other cities in America.   It is an interesting fact that writers like to have their works reviewed by other writers and also like to help colleagues by reviewing their new material.

Streaming Movies, Music, Weather, News etc.

Today in 2023 one of the most popular uses of computers and also cell phones is to stream programs from the web.    Almost any kind of entertainment is now available including movies, music, news, and weather.     Some of these services charge fees, but others are available for free although they may ask for donations.

Both public libraries and university libraries have thousands of books and films that are available to members.   There are also more than 25 streaming services for films that can be watched at home on a computer or even a smart phone.

Examples of streaming services include:

1. Hulu
2. Sling
3. Philo
4. DirectTV
5. Vidgo
6. Fube
7. Stars
8. Paramount
9. Disney
10. Apple TV
11. Internet Archive
12. You Tube

One of the most comprehensive sources for both films and books is the Internet Archive.    This is a free streaming service.    In order to watch a movie simply issue a command in a web browser such as:

“Casablanca on Internet Archive.”

The Internet Archive also has hundreds of foreign films, so it is also possible to say:

“Japanese movie Sanjuro on Internet Archive” or “Swedish movie The Magician on Internet Archive.”

While Internet Archive does not charge for movies or books that are downloaded, they do ask for donations.    Overall the Internet Archive is a valuable resource for gaining access to thousands of older movies and books.

Warfare

Computer-controlled pilotless military aircraft and drones have added new capabilities to world military forces.  They can fly dangerous missions without risking loss of pilots.   Current use is mainly reconnaissance over hazardous terrain and at sea over enemy surface ships.  They can also be used as cruise missiles with high-precision accuracy to minimize risks of collateral damages.

Computer controlled surface ships, tanks, and other military equipment are now being planned and some are under construction.  The Air Force has already carried out an experimental dogfight between two computer-controlled aircraft.

One of the first uses of the first computer developed by Charles Babbage in 1844 was ballistic calculations and range finding.

Examples of a few of the many modern uses of computers in warfare include:

1. Aircraft navigation
2. Analysis of troop movements
3. Battlefield coordination among separate units
4. Code breaking
5. Cyberwarfare to disrupt enemy computers
6. Drones
7. Gun controls
8. Missile guidance systems
9. Navigation of ships and aircraft
10. Pilotless aircraft
11. Radar target acquisition and analysis
12. Space warfare
13. Strategic planning
14. Rapid translations of intercepted message
15. Generation of deceptive information to confuse enemies

As with many other aspects of modern life, computers have had a major impact on military equipment, military strategy, and even military personnel since computer specialists are now part of headquarters staffs.

Web Browsing

The phrase “web browsing” refers to using a computer to search out topics of interest.   These topics are essentially unlimited and can include proper names such as “Capers Jones,” music such as songs by Ella Roberts or Pachelbel’s canon in D, daily news, or local weather conditions.

There are over a dozen available web browsers including these:

1. Brave
2. Edge
3. Firefox
4. Flock
5. Google Chrome
6. Internet Explorer
7. Netscape
8. Opera
9. Safari
10. Tor

Some computer users spend several hours a day browsing.  Surprising statistics indicate that adults with computers who are not working spend over 6 hours per day browsing the web.

Zoom Meetings instead of Live Meetings

When the covid virus arrived in 2020 live meetings became hazardous due to the risk of infection.  Fortunately the commercial Zoom tool was available as a convenient alternative.   The Zoom screen shows the faces of all of the participants and also backgrounds.   The backgrounds can be actual views taken from the computer’s own camera, or they can be selected images such as mountains or tropical forests.

When someone speaks on Zoom their image is high lighted to make it obvious who is talking.   Overall Zoom has made virtual meetings convenient.    Sometimes more than 50 participants take part in Zoom meetings and they may be located in different states or even different countries.

As of 2023 statistics indicate that over 300 million people use Zoom for meetings.  About 89% of office workers use Zoom from time to time.  Over 500,000 companies use Zoom for remote meetings.

Six Probable Future Impacts of Computers

 3D Printed Houses

The technology of 3D printed houses is 100% dependent on computers.  First a computer is used to design the structures of the house.   Then other computers control the construction which is similar to tubes of tooth paste.   Round ribbons of concrete are poured from machines into layers over a concrete foundation that was made by hand.  The first 3D printed house was constructed in 2015 in Russia.

One of the first American 3D houses was actually a barracks building in Bastrop Texas for the Texas Military Department.  Because 3D printed houses take only about a week to construct and may cost less than $20,000 they are a good candidate for solving low-income housing problems in Africa, North and South America, and Europe.

Needless to say conventional builders and architects are concerned about possible losses of business.   But if 3D houses concentrate in low-cost affordable housing they can soon become a major factor towards solving a chronic problem.

3D Interactive Books

In order to be converted to a movie the novel would have to be in e-book format.   Once published paper books do not change.  In fact some novels published on paper have lasted for over 1000 years.   If an author wants to create a new edition the whole book must be republished.

E-books, on the other hand, are downloaded into devices that can be connected to publishing websites.   If an author wants to make small changes to an e-book then the new version can be downloaded to any reader who wants the new version and has an e-book reader.

In order to convert an e-book novel into a movie, the essential features of novels need to be turned into rules that can be manipulated by a computer using artificial intelligence.   The basic parts of a novel are the following:

Major Features of Novels for Conversion to Movies

• Type of novel (adventure, mystery, romance, science fiction, etc.)
• Ages of anticipated readers (children’s book, adults, etc.)
• Whether the novel is written in the first person or third person
• Tone of the novel (humorous, serious, etc.)
• The specific characters in the novel identified by either names or occupations.
• The roles of the characters such a heroes, heroines or minor characters.
• Family relationships among major characters.
• The appearance and ages of the characters as described by the author.
• Descriptions of other worlds and races for science-fiction novels.
• Adjusting the ages of the characters if the novel spans many years.
• The dialog and interactions among the various characters of the novel.
• Memories of earlier times in the novel if mentioned by the characters.
• The emotional states of the novel’s characters such a love or anger.
• The actions of the characters such as walking, talking, driving automobiles etc.
• The deaths of either major or minor characters if included in the novel.
• Descriptive materials about the locations that comprise the scenes of the novel.
• Descriptive materials about the seasons such as Autumn, Winter, etc.
• The era that the novel is based on ranging from pre-history to modern times.
• The passage of time as the novel progresses from beginning to end.
• Alternate endings such as having a hero survive or die at the end of the novel
• Illustrations provided by the author or by publisher’s art staff
• Including sound effects such as thunder or gun shots.
• Including background music in the movie version of the novel.
• Including singing voices if the novel discusses singing such as opera
• Whether the characters are real people or generic images
• Copyrights for photos of actors and actresses (post 1978 pictures are copyrighted)
• Producing sound-tracks in English, Japanese, French, German etc.

Assuming that in the future a publishing house is equipped with large computers supporting artificial intelligence and an engineering staff to handle the processing, what would be the economic value of producing and marketing a movie at the same time the book itself is published?

Since computers and software support personnel are expensive, converting a novel into a movie would be far more expensive than merely publishing an e-book.    Here are some considerations about the pros and cons of automatically generating a movie from a novel:

If an e-book novel sells for $10.00 the movie version would probably need to sell for over $30.00 in order to cover production costs.

If the author and publisher believe that the book will be a bestseller, then it would probably be attractive to a real movie company such as Amazon, Netflix, or MGM.   In this case it would be best to sell movie rights to the film company rather than generate a movie automatically.

Movies using images of real actors and actresses would be more salable than movies using generic faces.   The only images that would be available without copyright violations would be those made before 1978.   It might be possible to use images of actors and actresses who are no longer living and whose work is out of copyright.

It would also be possible for a novel author to use his or her own image in the movie, along with friends and relatives who give permission.     Something else that could be done via AI is to acquire older movies that are no longer copyrighted and recreate them with images of live people such as family members.   It would even be possible to be the star in an older movie no longer in copyright.

One very likely customer for movies produced automatically from e-books would be movie production companies such as Netflix or Amazon.   The automatic version would be useful in thinking about scenery, actions, and dialogs for later production of a real movie with modern actors and actresses.

In fact film and television companies would probably be among the first to use AI to improve live-action films and television shows.

Should automatic production of movies from novels be of interest to book publishers or movie production companies, it would no doubt take several years before automatic conversion from novels to movies could be accomplished.   If work started in 2023 then probably 2026 might see a prototype.   Commercial production would probably not occur before 2030.

At a longer range say out to 2050 it would be possible to convert novels into 3D movies and even to allow readers (viewers) to speak to characters in the movie version of the novel and get answers.    Not only that but publishers might allow simultaneous conversations among multiple readers of the same 3D animated novel.

There might be risks of copyright violations if images of real people were used in the computer-generated movie.   The risk sequence is:

• The movie is an animated cartoon with no images of live people.
• The movie shows generic images of people created by a computer.
• The movie uses the author and friends and relatives who give permission.
• The movie shows actors and actresses who died before 1978: copyrights expired.
• The movie shows modern actors who are paid for permission to use their images.

Animated cartoons of novels would probably the least expensive and also least likely to encounter claims of copyright violation.

To conclude it will soon be possible to use artificial intelligence to convert novels into movies.  The most likely first users would be movie companies who use the computerized versions to experiment with camera angles, backgrounds, and other technical issues for lower cost than going on site.

Scientific Research

Scientific research consists in part of examining all of the current facts about a topic that is being researched.    Using search engines such as Google scientists can quickly find all relevant studies that have been published.   Using Zoom meetings scientists can quickly discuss research with colleagues located anywhere in the world.

Computers are also useful for all kinds of mathematical analysis and statistics.   In addition computers can be used for predictive analysis of the results of experiments.

For research topics such as epidemiology computers connected to global medical reporting services can quantify the incidence of a specific infection in every city of every country within a few minutes, and in addition can observe the rate of change – whether the infection is increasing or diminishing in terms of numbers of patients.

Overall scientific uses of computers include the following:

1. Analysis of past data on the topics under consideration
2. Communicating with other researchers
3. Handling complex mathematical calculations
4. Modeling probable results of experiments
5. Publishing results of scientific research

If you compare scientific research in 2023 with similar research done 50 years ago in 1973 the following results usually occur.  Fact checking is over 10 times faster in 2023.   Mathematical calculations are over 20 times faster in 2023.   Distribution of results to colleagues and libraries is over 100 times faster in 2023.   The quantity of data available to researchers is over 1000 times greater in 2023.  Computers are the most effective research tools in all scientific history.

Self-Driving Vehicles

Self-driving automobiles use a combination of sensors and computers for purposes such as:

1. Selecting destinations
2. Viewing in all directions
3. Recognition of stop signs and traffic signals
4. Recognition of daytime or nighttime conditions
5. Speed control of the vehicle
6. Awareness of local speed limits
7. Audio recognition of alarms such a fire engine sirens
8. Connections to police vehicles to stop the auto if necessary

Carnegie Mellon University built a working prototype in 1985 that was funded by the Department of Defense.    The most probable uses of self-driving vehicles in the future would probably be:

• Taxi cabs and limos in large cities
• Military vehicles such as tanks
• Autos acquired by assisted living homes.
• Autos used by those without driver’s licenses.

There are some kinds of vehicles where the self-driving feature would not be appropriate.  These include fire engines, ambulances, and police cars, delivery trucks, and moving vans.

What would be interesting are long-range studies that compared self-driving automobiles against a sample of autos with human drivers for these results:

• Accident rates
• Fuel consumption
• Traffic violations
• Maintenance costs

If self-driving vehicles prove to be safer and more economical than conventional autos with drivers then no doubt their numbers will increase.

Integrated Traffic Controls for Urban Areas

It will soon be possible for communities to have integrated traffic systems that would include:

• Synchronization of all traffic lights.
• Current data on numbers of vehicles on all major roads.
• Current data on speeds of vehicles on all major roads.
• Awareness of accidents anywhere in the urban area.
• Connections to emergency vehicles in order to clear their right of way.

It is probable that traffic conditions could be sent to computerized receptors in automobiles and trucks in order to provide warnings of heavy traffic or accidents on their current routes.    Even better, drivers could receive information on alternative routes with less traffic or no emergency vehicles.

In the future a combination of self-driving autos and integrated traffic systems should reduce accident rates and reduce congestion at peak periods.  If a majority of autos in the future are electric and self-driving, then perhaps global warming might be reduced.

Space Exploration

Because travel in space is intrinsically dangerous for human pilots and passengers it is fortunate that computers are able to handle navigation tasks and also control space vehicles.

Since space trips are sometimes of lengthy durations, using computers instead of human crews reduces the weight needed for supplies and reduces the space that would be needed for human crews to sleep and eat.   Computers can operate without air so complex atmosphere recycling equipment is not needed.

Sending spaceships to other planets takes weeks of space travel.  In the future sending spaceships to other stars would take years of travel.   Interstellar travel would probably be impossible for human crews because they would not live long enough to reach the destinations.

Already in 2023 dozens of computerized space and orbital vehicles have left earth.   Computerized space exploration using artificial intelligence will probably be the norm over the next 100 years.

Author’s Published Books from 1978 to 2021

1. Software Development Patterns and Anti-Patterns; Taylor Francis, 2021

 

1. A Guide to Selecting Software Measures and Metrics; Taylor Francis, 2017

 

1. Software Methodologies: A Quantitative Guide; McGraw Hill 2017

 

1. The Technical and Social History of Software Engineering; Addison Wesley, 2013

 

1. Quantifying Software – Global and Industry Perspectives;  CRC Press, 2012

 

1. The Economics of Software Quality, Prentice Hall, 2011

 

1. Software Engineering Best Practices;  McGraw Hill, 2009.

 

1. Applied Software Measurement, 3rd edition; McGraw Hill, 2008

 

1. Estimating Software Costs; McGraw Hill, 2007

 

1. The History and Future of Narragansett Bay; Universal Publishers, 2006.

 

1. Software Assessments, Benchmarks, and Best Practices; Addison Wesley Longman, Boston, Ma; 2000

 

1. The Year 2000 Software Problem, Addison Wesley Longman, Boston, MA; 1998.

 

1. Software Quality – Analysis and Guidelines for Success (International Thomson Computer Press; Boston, MA; 1997).

 

1. Patterns of Software System Failure and Success; International Thomson Computer Press: Boston, MA; 1995).

 

1. Assessment and Control of Software Risks; Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ; 1994.

 

1. Programming Productivity: Steps Toward a Science; Prentice Hall, 1993

 

1. Software Quality Today; IBM Corporation; 1978

 

1. Software Engineering Best Practices; IBM Corporation 1978

Bio:
Capers Jones, VP and CTO
Namcook Analytics LLC
Web:            www.Namcook.com
Blog:            http://Namcookanalytics.com
Email:            Capers.Jones3@gmail.com