Category Archives: Process@Risk™

#25 – HOW TO SCIENTIFICALLY PREDICT THE FUTURE (WELL, AT LEAST FOR YOUR PROCESSES) – DR. GIOVANNI SIEPE

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Dr. Giovanni Siepe pixWhat exactly do we mean when we talk about prediction? Nobody ever seems to get it right.  Does it have any relevance at all for management?  The answer to that question is a resounding yes!

WHAT DO WE MEAN WHEN WE TALK ABOUT PREDICTION?
There is an ongoing discussion about the meaning we assign to the words “prediction” and “forecast” among economists and scientists.  Their major concern seems to be our ability to “predict” extra-ordinary events. How do we define an extra-ordinary event?  As it is extraordinary, we might assume that by its very nature it cannot be predicted.  So why do we bother? Continue reading →

#20 – OF FIRES AND EXPLOSIONS ON TRAINS AND BOATS – CHRIS PEACE

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Chris Peace pixThe trains and boats …
Took you away, away from me.
(Bacharach, 1966)

Hindsight is cheap, as argued by Taleb when he wrote about black swans.

First [the black swan] is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact …. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. Continue reading →

#20 – STOP LOSING MONEY – IMPLEMENT A HUMAN CAPITAL RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY – KRISTIE EVANS

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KristieEvansPicThis year, the top challenge for CEOs according to The Conference Board’s 2013 CEO Challenge, is Human Capital.  But Human Resources (HR) can’t save you.  CEOs are looking for methods to improve productivity and reduce cost.   HR is regurgitating employee engagement and training and development as though those same traditional methods will suddenly produce the results CEOs need.  HR continues to sing the same song that has been heard for decades and seldom produces the desired results. Continue reading →

#18 – HOW TO DEVELOP RISK AND PROCESS REQUIREMENTS – ADINA SUCIU

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Anything we do is a process.  The more we acknowledge our processes and start the journey of managing and improving them, the lower the risk in overall operations.

The first step in managing processes is to understand all their components and a simple tool that could be used is SIPOC (suppliers, inputs, process, outpus customers). Continue reading →