Introduction
The focus of this article is on the application of guidance (ISO 31000, FFIEC, etc.) often resulting in the appearance of compliance resulting from a checkbox perspective rather than actually and actively identifying and managing risk(s) by organizations.
We human beings are born problem solvers. We even band together in order to more efficiently so
lve problems (we are reminded of the definition of “culture” from Fons Trompenaars: “social context for shared problem solving”[1]). This can even be seen as hardwired into our very being, once we see the evolution of human beings and then specifically their brains. The oldest part of the human brain, often called the “reptilian brain”, alerts us to danger and forces us to respond to the threat from that danger. Continue reading
Introduction
Recently I wrote an article titled “Can You Calculate the Probability of Uncertainty?” The article posited that the heavy dependence on mathematics to determine the probability of risk realization may actually create “false positives” regarding the basis for the determination of probability. My point was that there is too much uncertainty, things that we just do not know, to be able to calculate the probability of uncertainty with any degree of confidence. I received several comments from readers telling me that I was confusing the issue and that determining the probability of risk is all about “uncertainty”. I have to say that this gave me pause to think. And, my conclusion is that risk is all about the probability of identified certainties that carry an uncertain realization. Continue reading
Tell us a little about yourself and your latest risk engagements?
I have over 30 years of experience in what I will term the broad base of risk management. I have been engaged by over 100 clients nationally and internationally, representing major components of the public and prvate sectors. I have written four books on crisis management, business continuity, pandemic planning and have published over 380 articles relating to crisis, risk, business continuity, pandemic planning and contingency planning issues. Continue reading
Introduction
There seem to be a lot of sightings of “Black Swans” lately. Should we be concerned or are we wishfully thinking, caught up in media hype; or are we misinterpreting what a “Black Swan” event really is? The term “Black Swan” has become a popular buzzword for many; including, contingency planners, risk managers and consultants. However, are there really that many occurrences that qualify to meet the requirement of being termed a “Black Swan” or are we just caught up in the popularity of the moment? Continue reading