On the Path to Probability and Uncertainty?
Is the current situation with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea on your radar screen as a business continuity planning consideration? Is this situation a realistic risk that your planning should begin to address with a thorough analysis of the potential consequences of an escalation? What about the situation in Syria? Ukraine? Iran? India/Pakistan? Or are these risks too far away and remote to begin to understand? Continue reading
Risk modeling is a useful tool for business continuity managers, but over-reliance and flawed approaches can create difficulties.
Introduction
Fundamental uncertainties derive from our fragmentary understanding of risk and complex system dynamics and interdependencies. Abundant stochastic variation in risk parameters further exacerbates the ability to clearly assess uncertainties. Continue reading
1. Introduction
The BP Deepwater Horizon catastrophe cast a shadow on the oil industry and its senior executives. Has the industry learned its lessons or will it be forced to repeat the same mistakes over and over again? Oil company executives and board members should have seen the Deepwater Horizon event is as a wake-up call for the industry. Continue reading
Imagine that your plan has been implemented as it was designed. You and your organization carried out the plan following every detail that was contained in the planning documents. Your plan has failed. That is all you know. Your plan failed. Now your challenge and that of your planning team is to explain why they think that the plan failed. You must determine how much contrary evidence (information) was explained away based on the theory that the plan you developed will succeed if you implement the steps required to respond to a disruption of your business operations. Continue reading
Time matters most when decisions are irreversible
Transparent vulnerabilities are so obvious that they are easily overlooked; they are the ones we: