The trains and boats …
Took you away, away from me.
(Bacharach, 1966)

Hindsight is cheap, as argued by Taleb when he wrote about black swans.

First [the black swan] is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact …. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. Continue reading →