What exactly do we mean when we talk about prediction? Nobody ever seems to get it right.  Does it have any relevance at all for management?  The answer to that question is a resounding yes!

WHAT DO WE MEAN WHEN WE TALK ABOUT PREDICTION?
There is an ongoing discussion about the meaning we assign to the words “prediction” and “forecast” among economists and scientists.  Their major concern seems to be our ability to “predict” extra-ordinary events. How do we define an extra-ordinary event?  As it is extraordinary, we might assume that by its very nature it cannot be predicted.  So why do we bother? Continue reading →