#102 – ASSUMPTIONS: WHAT YOU KNOW MAY KILL YOU – HOWARD WIENER

In his post Cause of Death:  Invalid Assumptions, my colleague Mark Moore observed Howard Wiener Pixthat project risk management often excludes consideration of underlying assumptions on which event probabilities and prospective impacts are based.  Obviously, we cannot operate without relying on what we know or we would have to reinvent the wheel every time we had to go somewhere.  On the other hand, failing to challenge what we believe we know or to consider the possibility that there are relevant factors about which we have no idea (so-called “unknown unknowns”) can result in vastly underestimating risks or missing opportunities.  This article will raise questions more than it will provide answers but it does suggest that some changes in PM discipline can help reduce the risks our assumptions create. Continue reading

#101 – CAUSE OF DEATH: INVALID ASSUMPTIONS – MARK MOORE

As seasoned project managers, we are very familiar with identifying and managing risks (though too often, the activity stops with identifying and we “wing it” from there).  I’ve OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAwritten here on CERM Insights and elsewhere about assigning a weighted grade to risks based on the likelihood of the risk becoming an issue and the impact to your project should that happen.  From there you manage the higher graded risks more closely as they embody the possibility of causing the most damage to your project and hindering the success.

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