#138 – IN A WORLD OF ‘BLACK SWANS’, HOW DO YOU KNOW WHICH ONE TO WORRY ABOUT? – GEARY SIKICH

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UntitledIntroduction

There’s always a story that explains why an event is a “Black Swan” – after the fact. Where are the “Black Swan” prognosticators before events occur? I see “after the fact” articles and statements, such as, “we knew that was coming” or “we predicted this” – all after the fact. Generally projections and predictions seem never to hold sway until after the fact. Predictions and projections never seem to occur when the prognosticator specifies — is it just that the timing never seems to work out – until after the fact. From Nostradamus to the “Bible Code” we are enamored with predictions – after the fact. Does there seem to be a theme developing here? Continue reading

#132 – UNPREDICTABILITY OF CASCADE EFFECTS IN DISASTER PLANNING – GEARY SIKICH

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AAA GThe definition below was presented in a recent questionnaire conducted by Project Snowball in the European Union (EU). As used in the questionnaire the term “cascading effects” is defined as:

“Cascading effects are the dynamics present in disasters, in which the impact of a physical event or the development of an initial technological or human failure generates a sequence of events, linked or dependent from each other, that result in physical, social or economic disruption.  Continue reading

#129 – RISK ASSESSMENT: WHAT FUTURE ARE YOU PLANNING FOR? – GEARY SIKICH

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UntitledIntroduction

There exists an overabundance of guidance for conducting risk assessments. Yet, it seems that we still have difficulty in getting risk assessments to reflect the appropriate level of concern for the identified risks that we are assessing. We also tend to view risk in relation to the place where we are employed and the industry that we work in. When we look at risk assessment from this perspective it should be clear that we are missing the point precisely, or at best, are being too narrowly focused, when it comes to assessing risk for our organizations. Continue reading

#122 – REVIEW OF TOP POTENTIAL THREATS AND EMERGING CRISES FOR 2016 – GEARY SIKICH

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UntitledThreat Analysis 2016 – A Review of Top Potential Threats and Emerging Crises for 2016

We are well beyond the dreaded Mayan Calendar apocalypse of 2013. In November 2016, the United States will have a Presidential election and a new president. How well will we do, or, how poorly will we perform when, and if, unplanned for crises emerge from threats that we continue to overlook? My top picks for threats, emerging crisis issues and high impact risks in 2016 and their current status: Continue reading

#90 – SOME THOUGHTS ON EXPOSURE REDUCTION AND MITIGATION – GEARY SIKICH

UntitledExposure to threats, hazards and risks leads to vulnerabilities that an organization must deal with. Commonly these are addressed via a mitigation process. Once mitigation is accomplished, often times the organization feels that the risk, threat, hazard does not need to be revisited. However, as a result of the mitigation efforts on the part of the organization, the risks, threats, hazards reconfigure and re-emerge in a different form. In order for mitigation to be successful it has to be a constant and ongoing process that produces a resilience to the negative effects of risks, threats and hazards that are realized. Continue reading