#231 – BLACK SWANS OR JUST WISHFUL THINKING AND MISINTERPRETATION – GEARY SIKICH

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There seem to be a lot of sightings of “Black Swans” lately. Should we be concerned or are we wishfully thinking, caught up in media hype; or are we misinterpreting what a “Black Swan” event really is? The term “Black Swan” has become a popular buzzword for many; including, contingency planners, risk managers and consultants. However, are there really that many occurrences that qualify to meet the requirement of being termed a “Black Swan” or are we just caught up in the popularity of the moment? Continue reading

#218 – FACEBOOK: A CRISIS UNSEEN – GEARY SIKICH

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UntitledBP’s Deepwater Horizon costs total $62billion.  BP said Thursday that it expects the pre-tax cost of its 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill on the Gulf Coast to total $61.6 billion.  The 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill costs exceeded $7 billion.  At market close 25 July 2018, Facebook Inc. was worth $630 billion.  A day later: $510 billion.  Continue reading

#208 – CRAFTING A CONVENIENT TRUTH: THE CRISIS OF LEADERSHIP – GEARY SIKICH & DEBORAH HILEMAN

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Untitled1-150x150The number, size and scope of things distracting management’s attention from the task of running the business continues to expand at an increasing pace.  Denial of the threats from smoldering issues drives leaders to underestimate the potential for reputational and financial damage that can be caused by bad information gone viral.  Continue reading

#207 – CONSEQUENCES OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT: NORTH KOREA VS. UNITED STATES – GEARY SIKICH

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Untitled1-150x150On the Path to Probability and Uncertainty?

Is the current situation with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea on your radar screen as a business continuity planning consideration?  Is this situation a realistic risk that your planning should begin to address with a thorough analysis of the potential consequences of an escalation?  What about the situation in Syria?  Ukraine?  Iran?  India/Pakistan?  Or are these risks too far away and remote to begin to understand? Continue reading

#205 – RISK MODELING AND BUSINESS CONTINUITY – GEARY SIKICH

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Untitled1-150x150Risk modeling is a useful tool for business continuity managers, but over-reliance and flawed approaches can create difficulties.  

Introduction

Fundamental uncertainties derive from our fragmentary understanding of risk and complex system dynamics and interdependencies. Abundant stochastic variation in risk parameters further exacerbates the ability to clearly assess uncertainties. Continue reading