A predictable surprise is a risk event that in some form is known within the organization. It is of a nature that if left unresolved, it could be costly.  But fixing the problem appears to have larger short run costs, than long term benefits.  The Volkswagen diesel emissions fraud is one such example. It also a case where the penalties imposed outweighed the short term costs. Moreover, had a risk assessment occurred at several points along the way, there might not have been a scandal.  Continue reading →