It is said that there are two types of forecast…lucky or wrong. The outcome of a forecast can mean the difference between the success or failure of a venture; predicting the future is fraught with risk and it can be quite literally be a gamble. Information is typically incomplete, and foretelling requires assumptions and guesses as people spend valuable time preparing plans and schedules, resource estimates, and budgets and cash flows upon which execution will depend.
Forecasting predicts the future as best as we can. Most predictions are based upon the past and may include for some statistical analysis of historical norms, trends and variances. However, all forecasts will also include for the judicious application of knowledge, experience, heurism, and intuition in support of this educated guess. Alternatively, divination can be used and, according to Wikipedia, there are some 400 varieties. These range from straightforward crystal-ball gazing, astronomy and Tarot Cards to more bizarre methods involving freshwater crabs (nggàm) and extispicy with a reliance on slaughtered animals.
Unfortunately, no method is perfect despite the claims of many practitioners that their method really does work (sometimes)! Forecasters will include some caveat, disclaimer or contingency in the form of a ‘reserve’, or ‘float’. However, forecasts can become so fixed in our present-day minds that we often trust them with the same biblical certainty of “the rising of the sun and its setting” rather than circumspectness.
The Present
“The present is a fleeting moment; the past is no more; and our prospect of futurity is dark and doubtful” said the 18th Century English politician Edward Gibbon. Similarly, “Time and Tide wait for no man” is an 800-year-old saying and both quotes should remind us that timely decisions and dealing with risk and reality are matters for the present.
We live in the ‘here and now’ and if, or rather when, untoward events occur we need to work around these issues by implementing previously planned contingencies or making a new plan. When things go wrong and plans that are trusted implicitly are followed blindly no matter what, then we will simply bang our heads against the proverbial brick wall. The resultant procrastination causes people to dwell on the past in attempts to defend the indefensible which inevitably delays any decisions.
Forecasts must include for untoward events but it’s in the present moment that decisions need to be made, or rather, must be made.
The Past
Our Earth is studied by geologists who have applied various concepts to enable their understanding of the past. Early geologists under religious influence believed in catastrophism and that only short-lived violent events could modify the Earth. In the 1700’s the Father of Modern Geology, James Hutton advocated that “the present is the key to the past” and the Doctrine of Uniformity, or uniformitarianism, was born.
Uniformitarianism states that events that happen today also occurred similarly in the past; it’s also a key first principle in many fields of science. But its converse is also essential to forecasting and that past experiences will apply to the present. Geologists also believe in ‘punctuated equilibrium‘ where gradual processes are interrupted by unpredictable but certain catastrophes that are part of a continuum.
If forecasters ignore the risk of these certain catastrophes, no matter how rare or unpredictable, and depend on gradualism and easily predictable risks then they are naive. Naive forecasters may innocently delude the end-users of their forecast.
The Future?
If we think of time in terms of today and yesterday then “Tomorrow never comes“. However, Einstein, who apparently never thought about the future, observed, “it comes soon enough“. And when the future arrives decisions are needed.
The future determines the correctness or wrongness of any forecast. If a forecast is wrong then, in predictable human fashion, the forecaster will typically be blamed. But the forecaster may not be the master of his forecast’s destiny. The forecaster made his best guess but if that guess is cast in “tablets of stone” and followed religiously then the future is blocked.
If an incorrect forecast initiates a witch hunt, then procrastination will result as we go through the grief cycle of anger and denial. Grief, when coupled with historical opinion provides us with selective ammunition to blame somebody else as we avoid decisions. But how may we avoid grief, blame and procrastination when reality happens?
Reality & Being Prepared
Lord Baden Powell probably got it right in 1907 when he devised the memorable Boy Scout motto of “Be Prepared“. This means that “you are always in a state of readiness in mind and body to do your duty”, whatever that duty may be.
In reality Murphy’s Law is prevalent and if the unexpected can happen it will, despite any odds. However, Oscar Wilde wittily said, “To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect”; a modern intellect allows for adaption and alternatives.
For example, the British have an avid fixation with the weather because winter, spring and summer can happen in a single day and they need to be prepared. In the movie, Captain America, somebody said, “The man with the umbrella’s always ready” which is why an umbrella (and a coat) are necessary accessories for living in the UK.
Joking aside, and despite any forecasts, the real situation will drive what must happen. Forecasts needs to be updated to reflect reality and effort needs to be focussed on decisions rather than defending a forecast or blaming others.
Conclusions
Forecasts are best guesses as to what may happen if our assumptions were correct. Forecasts inevitably change when reality occurs but we can deal with reality in one of three ways:
- Believe the forecast and defend it against all odds and stop moving while we dig in our defences – i.e. block the future and put it ‘on hold’.
- Follow the forecast blindly, stick to the plan and carry on regardless – i.e. ignore the future and reality despite the consequences.
- Adapt the forecast to suit reality – i.e. recognise the future and deal with it.
Forecasts should not be cast in tablets of stone, nor should they be followed blindly. In the planning that should support any forecast a metaphorical umbrella (and coat) needs to be included no matter what the forecast may say so we may be prepared for the expected as well as the possibly unexpectable weather.