BCC (Banca di Credito Cooperativo) is an italian bank mainly dealing with small / medium sized family-owned business and private investors. It operates in the richer Nation’s areas, mostly.

BCC releases every two months a magazine to its shareholders, that’s named ‘The Voice’.’   The October 2013 issue is subtitled ‘Burned Generation’, as the articles are devoted to tackle the problem of juvenile unemployment.  Another risk topic critical in Europe and in most parts of the globe.

THE RISKS OF BIG DATA
Let us see what they write.  The solution they come with is all too obvious since the beginning, and echoes Henry Ford’s solution to the global depression of the 1930’s:  “Everybody ought to roll up his sleeves and get to work.”

For those of you who are not familiar with Italian economy: the present official figures (ISTAT) for national unemployment are 12.1 % of total work-capable population and 40.1% of the total juvenile work-capable population.

To better understand what follows, it has first to be noticed that:

1. Official figures do not match actual figures, since many workers are not legally enrolled.
2. Work-capable population is not defined in practical terms.
3. Juvenile population is more an assumption than a definition.

The Bank’s magazine leit-motiv / soundtrack is obviously an act of faith toward juvenile employment and the 35 pages magazine almost overflow with unfounded assertions.

There are nice-looking charts showing percentages of part-time juvenile employees versus unemployed young, employed graduated young versus non-graduated, family-leaving age compared with other EU Countries.

In short, the usual metrics one would expect more from a bank which promotes and subsidizes small & medium size business, and their families.

The Bank’s magazine emphasizes a message like Henry Ford’s: be creative, find yourself a job, invent yourself a job; the most recent slogan of Mr. Berlusconi’s TV network runs like “only by working, work can be created”.

RISK CHALLENGES OF SIMPLE SOLUTIONS
What lacks – both in BCC’s and Berlusconi’s diktats – are knowledge, analysis and understanding of the conditions that put the Italian economy to be where it is now.

In short:

1. Italy’s economy was mainly agriculture until the end of 60’s.
2. The 60’s boom was mainly due to big industrial concerns feeding on former agriculture’s manpower.
3. The former agriculture manpower lived like a dream a stable salary and health services provided by the industry.
4. The 1972/73 oil crisis was largely undervalued by the media and the masses.
5. At the end of the 1970’s Italy became more and more dependent on raw materials and crude oil imports.
6. The 1980’s decade was more or less economically stable, thanks to selling italian companies to foreign groups.
7. We all remember the 1990’s decade, until today. Italy had no more steel industry, car industry, petrochemical industry.  Until before the mid 1990’s, two thirds of non graduated students went to technical universities, after that, the proportion was reversed; two thirds went to humanistic universities.

RISK ANALYSIS
What am I saying?  The first generation founded the company.  The second made it grow.   And the third – and actual – sold it.

It’s not always easy to step into one’s father’s shoes.

What should a 60 million inhabitants country do? This is the 60 millions official number with probably 10 % more to account for the North-African migrants.

There are more posters ‘for sale’ or ‘to rent’ on buildings than car parks.  There are more industries and shops closing than opening save for migrants’ shops.  But the construction companies keep building houses and else, that they’ll probably sell in the next decade.

Surely, the intentions of BCC, and of the Italian Government, for what matters, are good: both push to make the Country’s economy grow.

But year after year, it sounds like wishful thinking.  W hen we ignore an event’s ‘life’, we run into risks – that the event will recur.