There’s a colossal storm approaching. I’m not talking about a hurricane, cyclone, or tornado. I’m talking about Covid-19.  With over 52 million confirmed cases and 1.3 million deaths worldwide, we have just seen the smallest inkling of the carnage that will occur over the next several months. As the weather turns cold in the northern hemisphere, people will be spending most of their time indoors, often in places with poor ventilation. These are ideal conditions for spreading airborne virus particles. People who do not take the danger seriously will be at the forefront of those who contract the virus and then spread it to others.

Some countries, such as the Peoples Republic of China and Taiwan, have taken severe measures to halt the spread of the virus and have succeeded in snuffing out the fire within their borders. Most other countries, most notably the United States, have done poorly.

In the United States, we are now at the beginning of a third wave of infections, and this one is already far more severe than anything we have seen so far. Case numbers are rising exponentially and hospitals have started to hit their maximum capacity already. As resources max out, some people will not get the care that they need and will die as a result. Others, with severe disease, will die regardless of the quality of care that they receive.

Recently there has been news, much hyped by the world press, that a Pfizer vaccine in a phase 3 clinical trial gave immunity to Covid-19 in ninety percent of the trial participants who received it. Russian researchers claim a vaccine (Sputnik V) that is at least as effective. Other vaccines are in the pipeline and may be available shortly after these two. However, that will not be soon enough for many, perhaps millions of people. Millions of people are going to contract Covid-19 over the next three or four months. The vaccines on the horizon will not become available in time for them.

There are over 7.7 billion people on the planet now in late 2020. To deal effectively with the pandemic, a large majority of those people will need to be vaccinated. If this doesn’t happen, a reservoir of virus will remain in the wild, ready to rise again. Covid-19 will remain a threat as long as the R-value of the disease remains above 1.0. The R-value is the average number of people infected by a carrier of an active infection. If that value goes above 1.0, infections will rise exponentially. The larger the R-value the steeper the exponential rise.

It’s encouraging that multiple vaccines look promising in the middle of phase 3 trials. However, it will take months to roll billions of doses out to the world’s population. Aside from the challenging logistics, some people will refuse to get vaccinated for a variety of reasons that seem important to them. These people are endangering all the rest of us along with themselves. Sadly, many people will die before Covid-19 is brought under control. The toll in lives, health, livelihoods, and entire industries will be great. For most of humanity, life will never be the same as it was before Covid-19 appeared in Wuhan, China, and from there swept through the world.

What should we all do? We should batten down the hatches to prepare for the storm. Faithfully perform all the actions that help to avoid a Covid-19 infection.

• Wear a mask whenever near anybody who is not a member of your family “bubble.”
• Wash hands frequently.
• Don’t shop in person if you can shop online and take delivery at home.
• Wipe off deliveries with hand sanitizer.
• Avoid crowded buildings with poor ventilation.
• Work from home rather than at your employer’s office or work site, if possible.

The Covid-19 storm will pass, but not next week or even next month. Be prepared mentally, emotionally, and physically, to hunker down at home for as long as it takes to rid the world of the SARS-Cov-2 virus. We all need to work on this to make it happen.

BIO:

Allen G. Taylor is a 40-year veteran of the computer industry and the author of over 40 books, including Develop Microsoft HoloLens Apps Now, Get Fit with Apple Watch, Cruise for Free, SQL For Dummies, 9th Edition, Crystal Reports 2008 For Dummies, Database Development For Dummies, Access Power Programming with VBA, and SQL All-In-One For Dummies, Third Edition. He lectures internationally on astronomy, databases, innovation, and entrepreneurship. He also teaches database development and Crystal Reports through a leading online education provider. For the latest news on Allen’s activities, check out his blog at wwwallengtaylor.com or contact him at allen.taylor@ieee.org.