The short answer is just about everywhere. A survey of death records from the early part of the pandemic, from March 1 to August 1 of 2020 analyzed the death rate in the states and compared that with what could be expected, based on prior year death data. Prior to the pandemic, such analyses were highly accurate, which led to a high degree of confidence that any excess deaths during Covid time would largely be due either to Covid-19 itself, or due to other causes of death that were amplified by the stress on the medical system due to Covid-19, as well as people’s reluctance to expose themselves to Covid by seeking help for other ailments, thus resulting in fatalities.

The statistics are interesting, but not surprising, if you have been keeping up on media coverage of the pandemic. During those early days, excess deaths spiked to over 200 per 100,000 population in New York and New Jersey. Over 100 excess deaths per 100,000 were recorded in the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Louisiana, and Arizona.

Some states did much better, having excess deaths in the single digits per 100,000 population. These included West Virginia, Montana, and Alaska. One state, Hawaii, actually had fewer deaths per 100,000 than would be expected, based on prior year data.

Some of this is not unexpected. New York and New Jersey are densely populated states, and population is spread out in Montana and Alaska. Hawaii is an island state that is accustomed to screening people when they fly in. With air travel largely curtailed, Hawaii has been able to minimize outbreaks. It also helps that it is not possible to drive your car to Hawaii from outside the state.

Also of note is the evolution of the pandemic. Whereas, early in the timespan studied, New York and New Jersey suffered a tremendous number of deaths, in the latter half, they had brought their numbers down substantially. Conversely, states that reopened early from lockdown, specifically Texas, Florida, California, and Arizona, experienced a surge in deaths from late June 2020 onwards.

Hopefully, in 2021, as more Americans get vaccinated, returning to something like pre-Covid normal behavior will be possible without causing another big increase in deaths.

BIO:

Allen G. Taylor is a 40-year veteran of the computer industry and the author of over 40 books, including Develop Microsoft HoloLens Apps Now, Get Fit with Apple Watch, Cruise for Free, SQL For Dummies, 9th Edition, Crystal Reports 2008 For Dummies, Database Development For Dummies, Access Power Programming with VBA, and SQL All-In-One For Dummies, Third Edition. He lectures internationally on astronomy, databases, innovation, and entrepreneurship. He also teaches database development and Crystal Reports through a leading online education provider. For the latest news on Allen’s activities, check out his blog at wwwallengtaylor.com or contact him at allen.taylor@ieee.org.