In early 2020 we heard statements that Coronavirus could infect as many as 2.5 billion people within 45 days and kill as many as 52.9 million of us…that’s one scary statistic! In March 2020 the World Health Organisation declared that the mortality rate would be 3.4%, another scary forecast! On this basis, or some other statistic or forecast, a few good men and women declared a pandemic. Fortunately, as we all may know now, those predictions of gloom and doom have not come to pass and were, shall we say, somewhat exaggerated. The sky hasn’t fallen.
We have been under attack from our new viral neighbour for almost two years and we have, in September 2021, 230 million cases and 4.7 million deaths. In stark reality, COVID has been far less virulent than people first forecast. But, despite the decisions made on the basis of incomplete information and wildly exaggerated as to the mortality rate we still behave and react as if the early predictions still ring true. And, if we did overreact, do we still need to carry on in ignorance of the truth?
Notwithstanding any debate as whether to vaccinate or not to vaccinate, people’s human rights are being affected. That is, the freedom of choice as to whether they volunteer to be vaccinated or not, after all an inoculation doesn’t obviate contracting or transmitting our viral friend.
History
Remember back to late 2019 and early 2020? We first heard about COVID and its killing ability. Awareness was created and so was a brief period of xenophobia and a blame game, which is still continues today. As COVID quickly spread around the globe we were told that the bogeyman was coming, we should all be frightened, and indeed, many people who weren’t concerned eventually succumbed.
The Worldometer suddenly became a daily reference for many with graphs ‘clearly showing’ an exponential rise in the COVID’s assault on mankind. In the early days emotive newscasters and politicians alike grabbed limelight and talked to a multitude of ‘experts’. Opinions and contrary opinions abounded and these experts grabbed their 5-minutes of fame via Skype and became even more expert.
We saw statistical curves of death rates, infection rates and recovery rates and the pandemic was declared. The news media pumped up the propaganda and they bombarded the world’s populous with even more opinions and changing opinions. The whole world was told that COVID could wreak its wrath as well as the untimely decimation of humanity. In the initial panic there were riots over food, toilet paper ran out, and some people even stocked up on guns and ammo.
On a serious note, those who have succumbed to the virus included, for the most part, the old and infirm, the sickly, and those with pre-existing health conditions. For some nations this was exacerbated by a realisation that governmental health facilities were depreciated coupled with a shortage of both medical personnel and equipment. COVID exposed us to a known and visible risk. Despite any excuses to the contrary, the risk was identified in 2019 as being of less than average likelihood with a more than average impact.
Facts, Lies and Statistics
COVID affects people and has caused deaths, that’s a fact. However, it’s far less virulent and less catastrophic than some fearmongers would have had us believe when we were first told that a virus had escaped from wherever it was created and began its global spread.
One politician prophesised that “many more families will see their loved ones die”. These obviously weren’t words of comfort, but it may have been a way of preparing people for a ‘new’, but nevertheless, undefined ‘normal’ based on initial panic, ignorance and emotion. Another politician, while intelligently advising that bleach injections wouldn’t be a good idea, sagely foresaw the advent of vaccines in one to two years. The vaccine is now with us, but vaccines too have caused fatalities and illness. Unfortunately, the statistics on this phenomenon are significant by their absence but any views contrary to the implementation of mandatory vaccinations appear to be either suppressed, poo-poohed or laughed-off.
Mankind now makes self-satisficing self-proclamations that ‘real progress’ and ‘success’ have been achieved against COVID over the last two years or so. This is done without the benefit of “control populations”, baselines or any apparent scientific rigour. But, gone are those early days of cleaners wearing full Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Warfare garb, the wearing of overshoes to meetings and wearing surgical gloves to work. Or is it that we now know differently and allow inconsistency to be practiced. For example, social distancing is demanded at airports, but closer proximity is allowed on aircraft because we wear a mask and only need practice social distancing when queuing for the lavatory or exiting the plane.
Has ‘real progress’ been made or are we merely reinforcing a bygone claim of a global disaster and a prophesy that millions would die every month? The disaster foreseen in 2019/20 did not eventuate. Clearly there has been an outbreak of COVID but who will admit that their forecast was wrong and, perchance, they caused an overreaction coupled with a side-order of chaos and confusion. However, in the absence of any reappraisal of the real situation, and thanks to the politicians and pharmaceuticals, we have reacted to a set of criteria that are not as serious as we were led to believe, but the belief persists. In some countries only the public need take precautions, politicians and movie stars are immune.
Nobody is declaring a ‘win’ but in the euphoria that being vaccinated brings some of the earlier preventive and cautionary measures are now being thrown to the wind. Vaccines are government approved, aren’t they, and the government wouldn’t lie to us, would they? Despite what any government says or does, or what a majority want to believe, COVID doesn’t care. THE VIRUS CAN BE TRANSMITTED BY ANYBODY NO MATTER WHAT THEIR COLOUR, CREED, POLITICAL AFFILIATION OR VACCINATION STATUS.
Economics?
In a surprising act of global uniformity, governments have all moved expeditiously and vaccines are freely available while stocks last. And stocks will last as we now find that boosters will be required for ‘unforeseen’ circumstances and our ever-mutating viral foe. But who pays for this ‘free’ and for how long will ‘free’ last? It’s at tax-payer’s expense ultimately as with all government spending – just as with lunch, there’s no such thing as a free ‘jab’.
The promise of a vaccine in the heat of a crisis and based on erroneous mortality rates generated a demand. Many looked forward to the promised vaccine as a panacea to their COVID-phobia and, with such an expectant market all that was needed was a product to meet the created demand. Although there are some products already available (such as Ivermectin) perhaps the expectation was for the vaccine as promised by politicians. And, perhaps, with COVID being a Novel Coronovirus, a novel medicine would be required rather than something readily available; where’s the profit or kudos in that?
Economically this scenario is referred to as ‘Artificial Demand’ and a demand for vaccines has been created and marketed, unwittingly or otherwise. This demand has been generated by the same people who predicted the doom and gloom of a pandemic despite it’s less than predicted veracity – but it’s better to be safe than sorry and a constant demand is an economic life preserver.
The real costs of COVID are difficult to establish and includes loss of trade, loss of productivity, medical costs, lost opportunity…the list goes on but one thing will be remembered and it will be the cost of the lockdowns.
While in lockdown very little gets done and economically it’s a drain. For example, in Sydney, Australia a recent analysis (Aug 2021) showed that the COVID fatality rate had settled at around 0.4%. This means that of 4,000 avoided cases about 16 additional deaths were prevented. However, this life saving initiative came at an estimated cost of A$330 million per saved life; that’s 66 times the value of a statistical Australian life at A$5 million.
The cost of life is an emotive topic and, no matter what one’s spiritual beliefs are regarding life and the soul, people have a ‘price tag’ and this depends on your country’s GDP. In some countries it can be a mere US$250,000 while for US Citizens it’s around US$10 million and for Germans it’s US$17 million. A cursory look at the internet and estimates of economic loss etc compared with the death toll shows that each fatality is costing of the order US$4 million to US$6.5 million. This is far from optimal economics and in a business such costs would prompt a look at one’s business plan and perhaps looking at the Demming Cycle of Plan, Do, Check, Action and checking the Plan again in light of reality rather than forecast.
In Australia the question on the real cost of COVID and return on lockdown investment has been asked but a response is not forthcoming and political paltering and backstabbing are being preferred by the government in power. In other countries, and despite the lack of a direct question all we hear is emotional rhetoric that spending is justified. Unfortunately, and contrary to the principle of free (and reasonable) speech any contrary view is unilaterally belittled as ‘fake news’. Even articles on the Internet are removed with impunity and people with a moderated voice of reason and factual arguments are branded as heretics.
Conclusion
People are being led to believe that the final solution for COVID is the vaccine and it’s the topic of many a conversation, debate and argument. How often do we hear “Have you been vaccinated?” as a greeting rather than “How are you?” or “There’s no need for a mask…or [shock, horror] aren’t you vaccinated?” followed by a sermon on why vaccination is best.
“Anti vaxxers’ are quickly branded as non-conformists, radicals, or conspiracy theorists and are seldom allowed to speak before they are shot down. Even some experienced and qualified healthcare professionals who are “in the know” and oppose vaccination are ‘fair game’ for opinionated pot-shots from laypeople. In this so-called age of inclusivity it’s strange that an admission of not being vaccinated brings about immediate discrimination; this is far from the idea of civil liberty. As the writer Evelyn Beatrice Hall penned regarding Voltaire’s views on freedoms, “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it” but today in a time of crisis such a right is being sorely tested.
Notwithstanding any contrary view to mandatory vaccination when will politicians explain why they have gone to extraordinary lengths to protect society given that we now have more data upon which to make, or change a decision, and how much taxpayers have paid. “Prevention is better than cure” goes the saying but for COVID and based on what we know today rather than almost two years ago, and which could still be put in place or changed, “are we trying to prevent something that didn’t need so much curing?”
Afterthought
Did somebody cry ‘wolf’ early and, based on panic, predict the sky would fall? Given the magnitude of the economic loss and reputational damage will anybody admit to such a colossal mistake? But, because of lockdowns and 24/7 propaganda almost everybody believed it! Nobody involved who knows the truth is likely to say otherwise, are they?
Bio:
Malcolm Peart is an UK Chartered Engineer & Chartered Geologist with over thirty-five years’ international experience in multicultural environments on large multidisciplinary infrastructure projects including rail, metro, hydro, airports, tunnels, roads and bridges. Skills include project management, contract administration & procurement, and design & construction management skills as Client, Consultant, and Contractor.