Did the Fourth Turning book, published in 1997 cataloging historical events, offer insight into what might happen in the next few years? (1) Can we learn from it to become aware of risks and opportunities, to be prepared for what may be coming?
“The best prophet of the future is the past.” Lord Byron (2)
A Fourth Turning according to the authors, Strauss and Howe, signals the coming of dramatic change characterized by major life altering events such as disruption in various business sectors, economic depression, revolution, the fall of governments, and war. Was the Fourth Turning book prescient?
The authors asserted that over the past five hundred years, Anglo-American society entered a new era (a Turning) about every 20 years. These 20-year periods correlate to life experience changes that occur before the next phase of life. For example, the transition from childhood, to young adulthood, to midlife, and finally to elderhood.
Turnings follow an orderly cycle that include a High, followed by an Awakening, an Unraveling, and finally a Crisis. Taken together, the four turnings occur over the average length of a human life or about 80 years.
Each of the four Turnings sees the birth of a new generation, with each new generation influenced by the Turning in which they are born, i.e., High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. Societies are thus influenced by the era in which people are born, i.e., the Turning, and in turn these people influence future Turnings.
What does history tell us about Turnings? According to Strauss and Howe, Fourth Turning Crises occur on a repeatable cycle of about 80 years.
Examples include the American Revolutionary War (climax year 1781), the American Civil War (climax year 1863), and World War 2 (climax year 1944). Projecting another 80 years suggests the next Fourth Turning climax year might be 2024, but could earlier, e.g., 2023, or perhaps later.
These Fourth Turnings occur irrespective of population size as there were 2.8 million people in 1780, 35.3 million in 1864, 146 million in 1944, and 331 million in 2020. (3)
The climax year is the darkest moment of the Crisis Turning. When it occurs and what form it takes will be a complete surprise. This dark period may last for several years before the country leaves the Crisis behind and begins a new Turning, a High.
Howe placed the start of the current Fourth Turning in September 2008 with the failure of Washington Mutual, with $307 Billion in assets. (4)
In the current Fourth Turning with its unique mix of generations influenced by history, conditions that failed to ignite a climax in a previous Fourth Turning, might ignite one this time.
Friedman, author of The Storm Before the Calm, highlights the presidential elections years of 2024, 2028, and as far out as 2032, as being critical times. (5)
A new financial crisis unfolded as this article was being written. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the 16th-largest in the U.S with $210 billion in assets serving the tech industry, venture capitalists, and start-ups was shut down. (6)
SVB’s problems began on Wednesday night, 8 March 2023, when it announced it planned to raise $2 billion to bolster its financial position. On Thursday, 9 March 2023, its stock price dropped 60%. By mid-day Friday, 10 March 2023, banking regulators, both State and Federal announced they were taking over SVB. (7)
SVB’s failure was the second largest ever in the United States since Washington Mutual, a $307 billion company, crashed in September 2008.
Another commercial bank, $110 billion Signature Bank catering to the cryptocurrency industry, was closed on Sunday, 12 March 2023 by regulators after customers apparently panicked by SVB, began withdrawing funds. Signature Bank had offices in multiple states, including California, Connecticut, Nevada, New York, and North Carolina. (8)
Republic Bank is a San Francisco bank with $210 billion in assets providing private banking and wealth management services. It saw its stock price drop from $39.16 on Monday 13 March to $34.06 on Wednesday 15 March, and plunged further to $23.03 on Friday 17 March. (9) This event, in the midst of SVB and Signature Bank troubles, prompted 11 of the largest USA banks to aid Republic Bank with a $30 billion deposit.
Banking troubles were not confined to the Unites States. In Switzerland, Credit Suisse reported weaknesses in its financial position during this same week (13-17 March 2023), with intentions of borrowing about $50 billion from the Swiss central bank to strengthen its position.
Credit Suisse’s stock price subsequently declined about 64%. UBS Group AG, also a Swiss bank, subsequently agreed to buy Credit Suisse Group AG for $3.2 billion.
Whether the closures of SVB and Signature, as well as Republic Bank and Credit Suisse’s financial issues, signal the start of this Fourth Turning’s Climax is not yet known. (10)
For example, the American Revolution’s Fourth Turning built up over approximately 20 years with a series of events that culminated in the 1781 Yorktown victory (climax) over the British. It is worth a moment to explore the events of the American Revolution to grasp the timeline. (11)
Predecessor events began with the imposition of new taxes and authority on the American colonies through the Sugar Act of 1764, the Stamp Act of 1765, the Townsend Act of 1767, the Boston Massacre in 1770, and the Intolerable Acts in 1774. While the patriots’ Boston Tea Party reaction occurred in 1773.
The First Continental Congress was established later in 1774, Patrick Henry gave his “Give me liberty or give me death” speech in March 1775, followed rapidly by Paul Revere’s ride and the Lexington and Concord battles in April 1775, and Battle of Bunker Hill in June 1775.
Thomas Paine’s 50-page Common Sense pamphlet was published in January 1776, followed by the Declaration of Independence in July 1776. France and United States formed an alliance in February 1778, the Articles of Confederation were ratified in March 1781, and the siege and victory at Yorktown occurred in October 1781.
While the American Revolution provides a historical timeline, what might the timeline of events look like for this current Fourth Turning?
The Washington Mutual bank failure in 2008 kicked off the current Fourth Turning.
Maidan Revolution of 2014 in Ukraine which led to the fall of the government and perhaps set the stage for the current conflict.
Global COVID pandemic and shutdown that began in March 2020.
Supply chain disruptions associated with the COVID pandemic.
Across the board inflation that followed the pandemic and supply chain disruption.
Ukraine-Russia war began in February 2022 and financial and military support provided by the West soon followed.
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), the five leading emerging economies that are flexing their economic muscle to challenge western-led economies.
Friedman, in his book, the Storm Before the Calm, published in 2020 and updated in 2021, wrote of two cycles, a socioeconomic one that occurs approximately every 50 years, and an 80 year institutional cycle.
Like Strauss and Howe, Friedman noted that this American institutional cycle began with the American Revolution, followed about 80 years later with the Civil War, and concluded in 1945 with the end of WW II, with the next cycle expected circa 2025.
Friedman predicted that the institutional cycle will result in a crisis in the middle 2020s, and that the socioeconomic cycle will culminate in a crisis around the same time. The author asserts that these two cycles may resonate in middle 2020s for the first time in American history, further exacerbating the Crisis.
Also, like the Fourth Turning’s High, The Storm Before the Calm anticipates a period of prosperity (i.e., a “High”) following the Crisis.
As Strauss and Howe note, Fourth Turnings are historically accompanied by war, bank failures, loss of faith in institutions, and other strains. As of February 2023, the one-year anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war, the US has provided $196 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. (12, 13)
What the future brings cannot be predicted with any certainty, but both Strauss and Howe as well as Friedman suggest that a Crisis Climax will be unfolding in the 2024 – 2032 timeframe.
Will there be a single trigger event? Or, more likely, will there be a series of quickly unfolding events like happened during 1774 – 1776 with the American Revolution?
This topic, a Fourth Turning Crisis, is firmly in risk territory, more specifically a period of uncertainty several years out, with unknown but significant future events.
Since we are dealing with risk, there is the probability that something might or might not happen.
The effects of risk may either be inconsequential or catastrophic.
The combination of the two probability and consequence might not have much if any effect on an individual or a business – or be disastrous.
After all, life and business are all about risk. The Fourth Turning Crisis provides a means to build awareness of prospective change and associated risks and opportunities.
For individuals and businesses alike, the task at hand is to imagine a set of scenarios of both adverse events around the Crisis’ climax, and opportunities in the following High post-Crisis.
Then assess them for relevance to one’s situation and plan accordingly.
Weather the storm, and then seize opportunities.
This is well informed art, but not science. But it is better to be aware, than caught off-guard!
All risk is personal.
Epilogue
Recently, references to the Fourth Turning book were found in a variety of Internet sources. Most provided only a summary focused on the Crisis Turning, i.e., indicating that it was either already here or soon to be. While projecting future events is folly, understanding the repetitive rhythms of history seemed reasonable. The Fourth Turning contains over 330 pages of content rich material, meaning that this book is not a quick read. Help in grasping and understanding key concepts was provided by several published summaries, including a study guide by Strauss and Howe. (13, 14) Likewise, Friedman’s The Storm Before the Calm is also detailed and covers a lot of territory in its 335 pages. They are both worth reading and thought provoking, but be prepared to spend substantial time doing so.
References:
(1) Strauss, William and Howe, Neil. The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy. Broadway Books, Crown Publishing Group, Penguin Random House, New York, New York, 1997 (paperback published 1998).
(2) “The best prophet of the future is the past.” Lord Byron https://www.goalcast.com/history-quotes/
(3) USA Population. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1067138/population-united-states-historical/
(4) Howe, Neil. Where did Steve Bannon get his worldview? From my book. The Washington Post, February 24, 2017. (Howe dated start of current 4th Turning as 2008.) https://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/books/where-did-steve-bannon-get-his-worldview-from-my-book/2017/02/24/16937f38-f84a-11e6-9845-576c69081518_story.html
(5) George Friedman. The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond. Anchor Books, A Division of Penguin Random House LLC, New York, New York. Copyright 2020, preface copyright 2021. First Anchor Books Edition, January 2021.
(6) Rob Wile. Silicon Valley Bank shutdown: How it happened and what comes next. The second-biggest U.S. bank collapse on record comes during a broader reckoning for the tech sector, to which SVB was a major lender. March 10, 2023, 3:00 PM EST / Updated March 10, 2023, 3:54 PM EST https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-news-updates-rcna74384
(6) Natasha Mascarenhas, Alyssa Stringer. Silicon Valley Bank: Here’s a timeline of the bank’s failure. As of 8:01 AM EDT. March 16, 2023. https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/16/svb-crash-timeline-what-happened/
(7) William Chittenden. Analysis: What Silicon Valley Bank collapse means for the U.S. financial system. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/analysis-what-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-means-for-the-u-s-financial-system
(8) Alain Sherter. Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse sows fear over banking system. Here’s what to know. Updated on: March 15, 2023 / 6:54 AM / MoneyWatch. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/silicon-valley-bank-signature-bank-collapse-joe-biden-cbs-news-explains/
(9) Matt Egan, CNN. First Republic Bank stock tumbles on credit downgrade and deposit worries. Updated 12:51 PM EDT, Wed March 15, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/15/investing/first-republic-downgrade/index.html
(10) Ellen Francis. First Republic, SVB, Credit Suisse: The latest banks in trouble and why. March 17, 2023 at 10:15 a.m. EDT. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/17/first-republic-svb-bank-failures/
(11) Jeff Wallenfeldt. Timeline of the American Revolution. https://www.britannica.com/list/timeline-of-the-american-revolution
(12) US leads the rest of the world with $196 billion given to Ukraine amid war with Russia. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-leads-rest-of-the-world-196-billion-ukraine-war-russia February 12, 2023 2:55am EST.
(13) Michael Ray. Russia – Ukraine War. https://www.britannica.com/event/2022-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine
(14) William Strauss and Neil Howe, Study Guide, The Fourth Turning. Published by Super Summary, ISBN 9798470599230.
(15) Chapter Zoom. Summary of the Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe (an unofficial summary and analysis). January 2023. ISBN 9798654548054 (Available from Amazon).
Bio:
His career has been enriched through education, training and experience beginning in the early 1970’s as an investigator, and later as economist, statistician, operations researcher, adjunct professor, business owner, newsletter publisher, consultant, quality award examiner, risk and QA manager, and contractor.
The common thread throughout this time has been gathering, reducing, assessing, summarizing, and presenting findings to enable decision making. With the arrival of COVID-19, it was recognized that methods and tools used for decision making in a business setting, particularly involving risk, can be adopted to individuals.
Toney is also an aspiring business fiction writer where his future works will be published on vucanites.com.