The first major discussion about artificial intelligence (AI) took place on the Campus of Dartmouth College in 1956.  One  result of this meeting was funding by the U.S. and British governments for AI research.   The participants in the 1956 meeting included Claude Shannon and Nathan Rochester from IBM, Marvin Minsky, John McCarthy, and others.   McCarthy proposed the term “artificial intelligence” which was accepted by the group.

As early as 1950 the scientist Alan Turing developed the “Turing test” to help identify artificial intelligence.   His test stated that if “a mechanical device could carry on a conversation with a human that the human did not recognize as coming from a machine then the machine was a thinking machine” or artificial intelligence device.

Due to slow progress after the 1956 meeting, the British and American governments cut funding in 1974 which is now called the “AI winter.”

In 1981 the Japanese government started an AI research program but after a few years funding declined again.    Global AI funding rose and fell until AI began to show commercial value.  Today in 2023 both corporations and governments are exploring new uses for AI and utilizing AI for dozens of business and government tasks.

In recent years artificial intelligence (AI) has demonstrated the ability to create short stories and novels within a few seconds.   Novels can be created in about 30 seconds and a 500-page technical book only takes about a minute.

The current generation of AI tools such as ChatGPT do not handle humor very well but eventually that gap will probably be solved..

Human authors are facing serious competition from AI tools.   Even worse AI can also be used for criminal acts such as imitating voices and asking for money.

The main purpose of this short article io suggest some possible future State and Federal regulations to ensure that artificial intelligence does not compete unfairly with human authors.

Using Artificial Intelligence to Write Books

Already in 2023 artificial intelligence can accomplish all of these topics which until recently could only be done by humans:

1. Write novels.
2. Write short stories.
3. Write history books.
4. Write technical manuals.
5. Translate books and e-books into multiple natural languages.
6. Create audio books.

Within a few years some additional AI capabilities should be possible:

7. Convert novels into movies.
8. Convert movies into novels.
9. Convert novels or movies into television shows.
10. Convert movies into 3D interactive movies.
11. Develop unique scripts for new movies or television shows.
12. Develop interactive movies where viewers can participate.

The screen writers’ strike of 2023 has stopped many TV shows from airing.   Unfortunately for the screen writers ChatGPT might someday be used to generate scripts if TV writers are on strike.

Artificial intelligence in the future may have as large an impact on authorship and publishing as the printing press and the invention of e-books.  AI will also have major impacts on movies, television, and music composition and performances.

Books written by AI can be completed in a few minutes.   If the AI tool is set to imitate well-known authors such as Rudyard Kipling or Mark Twain then AI could churn out dozens of sequels using the same style.  It will probably be necessary in the future for publishers to offer warranties that books were written by humans instead of by computers.

From watching the ChatGPT tool at work, 10-page short stories can be produced in 2 seconds and a 200- page novel in less than 30 seconds.  A full movie script for a 2-hour film with dialogs for twenty actors would probably take less than 2 minutes.

Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Produce Audio Books

If AI can be used to generate movies from novels, it would also be possible to create audio books at the same time.   In fact more than one audio book could be produced with one having a male voice and the other a female voice or male and female voices could both be used to show male and female characters.

Even better, audio books could be produced in multiple spoken languages such as English, Japanese, French, German, etc.

By 2050 the following scenario would probably be technically possible, although whether publishers and authors will want to use AI is not certain.

Once an author has completed a novel and it has been accepted by a major publisher, then the following could occur:

AI Methods for Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Publishing

• Conversion of the novel into e-book format automatically.
• Translation of the novel into multiple languages such as English, Japanese, French, etc.
• Conversion of the e-book into audio books in multiple languages.
• Conversion of the e-book into audio books with both male and female voices.
• Conversion of the novel into a movie with generic characters.
• Conversion of the novel into a movie using images of actors that are not copyrighted.
• Conversion of movies into multiple spoken languages.
• Conversion of the novel into movies with AI produced music soundtracks.
• Conversion of the novel into a movie using images or actors who are paid a fee.
• Marketing updates to the novel and related materials whenever the author wishes.

The way books are marketed could be very different than today in 2023.   For example:

• A single copy of an e-book might sell for $10.
• The audio version of the e-book might sell for $20.
• A cartoon movie version of the e-book might sell for $25.
• The movie version of the e-book with generic characters might sell for $30.
• The movie version of the e-book with actors out of copyright might sell for $40.
• A combined package might sell for $60.
• Subscriptions for annual updates and new releases might sell for $25 per year.

In the future artificial intelligence (AI) might change the fundamental concept of novels from being fixed and static into a subscription model for e-books and related materials that evolve year by year for as long as the author and publisher want the process to continue.

Limiting Artificial Intelligence Book to E-Books Only

Because of the concern about AI competition from authors and publishers it may be best to restrict AI books and minimize printed copies.

Many people who read paper books don’t own computers, so the market for paper books is very large.  Publishers and authors should want to keep the paper-book business exclusively for human authors and not publish AI books in paper formats.

Using AI to Convert Novels into Movies

Last year in 2022 the author was able to visit the sets of a movie in production called Rally Caps which stars Judd Hirsch and Amy Smart.   The movie is based on a true story about a deaf boy who gets cochlear implants.  Because the movie features Little League baseball it has been previewed at eight major-league stadiums.   The film won an award at the Heartland Film Festival in Indianapolis and is also in the Palm Beach Film Festival in Florida.  More recently it won best family film at Sedona.

From being on the sets and watching how the film was produced, it seems possible for artificial intelligence to convert a novel into a movie without much in the way of human intervention.

The novel would have to be in e-book format.   Once published paper books do not change.  In fact some novels published on paper have lasted for over 1000 years.   If an author wants to create a new edition the whole book must be republished.

E-books, on the other hand, are downloaded into devices that can be connected to publishing websites.   If an author wants to make small changes to an e-book then the new version can be downloaded to any reader who wants the new version and has an e-book reader.

In order to convert an e-book novel into a movie, the essential features of novels need to be turned into rules that can be manipulated by a computer using artificial intelligence.   The basic parts of a novel are the following:

Major Features of Novels that must be included for Conversion to Movies

• Type of novel (adventure, mystery, romance, science fiction, etc.)
• Ages of anticipated readers (children’s book, adults, etc.)
• Whether the novel is written in the first person or third person
• Tone of the novel (humorous, serious, etc.)
• The specific characters in the novel identified by either names or occupations.
• The roles of the characters such a heroes, heroines or minor characters.
• Family relationships among major characters.
• The appearance and ages of the characters as described by the author.
• Descriptions of other worlds and races for science-fiction novels.
• Adjusting the ages of the characters if the novel spans many years.
• The dialog and interactions among the various characters of the novel.
• Memories of earlier times in the novel if mentioned by the characters.
• The emotional states of the novel’s characters such a love or anger.
• The actions of the characters such as walking, talking, driving automobiles etc.
• The deaths of either major or minor characters if included in the novel.
• Descriptive materials about the locations that comprise the scenes of the novel.
• Descriptive materials about the seasons such as Autumn, Winter, etc.
• The era that the novel is based on ranging from pre-history to modern times.
• The passage of time as the novel progresses from beginning to end.
• Alternate endings such as having a hero survive or die at the end of the novel
• Illustrations provided by the author or by publisher’s art staff
• Including sound effects such as thunder or gun shots.
• Including background music in the movie version of the novel.
• Including singing voices if the novel discusses singing such as opera
• Whether the characters are real people or generic images
• Copyrights for photos of actors and actresses (post 1978 pictures are copyrighted)
• Producing soundtracks in English, Japanese, French, German etc.
• Composing music for the movie and performing the music

Assuming that in the future a publishing house is equipped with large computers supporting artificial intelligence and an engineering staff to handle the processing, what would be the economic value of producing and marketing a movie at the same time the book itself is published?

AI movies would compete with the current TV and Film production companies such as Amazon, Apple, Netflix, MGM, and many others.

If an e-book novel sells for $10.00 the movie version would probably need to sell for over $30.00  to cover production costs.

If the author and publisher believe that the book will be a bestseller, then it would probably be attractive to a real movie company such as Amazon, Netflix, or MGM.   In this case it would be best to sell movie rights to the film company rather than generate a movie automatically.

TV and movie production companies have contracts with famous actors and actresses which would not be likely for AI films and movies.

Movies using images of famous actors and actresses would be more salable than movies using generic faces.   The only images that would be available without copyright violations would be those made before 1978.   It might be possible to use images of actors and actresses who are no longer living and whose work is out of copyright.

It would also be possible for a novel author to use his or her own image in the movie, along with friends and relatives who give permission.     Something else that could be done via AI is to acquire older movies that are no longer copyrighted and recreate them with images of live people such as family members.   It would even be possible to be the star in an older movie no longer in copyright.

One very likely customer for movies produced automatically from e-books would be movie production companies such as Netflix or Amazon.   The automatic version would be useful in thinking about scenery, actions, and dialogs for later production of a live movie with modern human actors and actresses.

Should automatic production of movies from novels be of interest to book publishers or movie production companies, it would no doubt take several years before automatic conversion from novels to movies could be accomplished.   If work started in 2023 then probably 2026 might see a prototype.   Commercial production would probably not occur before 2030.

At a longer range say out to 2050 it would be possible to convert novels into 3D movies and even to allow readers (viewers) to speak to characters in the movie version of the novel and get answers.    Not only that but publishers might allow simultaneous conversations among multiple readers of the same 3D animated novel.  Eventually it may be possible to produce 3D images on flat screens rather than using binocular devices.

There will be risks of copyright violations if images of real people are used in the computer-generated movie.   The risk sequence is:

• The movie is an animated cartoon with no images of live people: low risk.
• The movie shows generic images of people created by a computer.
• The movie uses the author, friends, and relatives who give permission.
• The movie shows actors and actresses who died before 1978: copyrights expired.
• The movie shows modern actors and actresses who are paid to use their images.

The most likely first users of AI movies would be movie companies who use the computerized versions to experiment with camera angles, backgrounds, and other technical issues for lower costs than going on site.

Using Artificial Intelligence to Publish and Distribute Books and Magazines

Not only could artificial intelligence write stories and books, but AI can also edit the books, create art for books, print the books, bind the books, and package them for shipment.   AI could also handle orders for books.  AI could also create unique art for every book and thereby avoid copyright problems.

In fact, if AI is involved in book publishing to its maximum technical limits, the only humans involved in publishing would be:  1) the owner of the publishing company; 2) the chief financial officer, who has fiduciary responsibility that cannot be assigned to a machine; 3) three software engineers since AI publishing can operate 24 hours a day and a human should be available to fix computer problems if they occur.   If the publisher wants to stay open weekends, then additional software personnel would be needed.

Sales personnel would need to be human but could be contractors and not fulltime employees.   Customer support is already handled by AI and only for issues that are outside the scope of the AI engine are humans involved.

If the publisher owns the AI computers then the publisher will need software and maintenance personnel.  But it is also possible to lease computer time from large vendors that support multiple companies.

Imagine a publishing company the size of McGraw Hill that would be able to produce over 1000 new titles per year with only 5 to 7 human employees.

AI could produce so many books so quickly that it might saturate the markets.  However, AI can also do market analysis and would probably slow down production of new books to keep sales at reasonable levels.

Another question is whether the AI based publishers would deal exclusively with AI books or continue to support human authors.   The work of human authors requires editing and proofreading, which are not necessary for AI books.  It may be that in the future AI can do editing and proofreading of manuscripts written by human authors, but as of 2023 those tasks are still done by humans.

A question that goes beyond current knowledge would be what would happen if there were dozens or even hundreds of AI publishing companies?

Magazine publishing is expensive because of the large number of color illustrations.  AI could either produce the illustrations or possibly send out drones with cameras to photograph appropriate scenes.

Magazines would also require minimal human staffing:  the owner, a human financial officer, and computer personnel.

If AI is used in publishing books and magazines, the jobs of thousands of humans would seem to be at risk.

Using Artificial Intelligence to Compose and Perform Music

One of the oldest uses of AI has been music performance.   AI can also compose music.  This means that not only are authors at risk from AI competition but also musicians and composers.

In the future it might be possible to generate a composition such as a piano concerto in a few seconds, and then have a performance of the concerto with avatars of the musicians.    The view from a computer screen would look like an actual auditorium with musicians and a director but the entire production would be artificial.

AI could also perform famous music by human composers such as Beethoven, Brahms, Puccini, Prokofiev, and any other composer so long as their music was written so long ago that it is not copyrighted.

Basic Concepts for Protecting Human Authors from Artificial Intelligence

The most important topic of this paper is to consider is how to protect human authors and publishers from competition by artificial intelligence (AI):

Suggestions for Reducing AI Competition

1. Documents produced by AI must be identified by an AI mark on the first page.
2. Documents produced by artificial intelligence cannot be copyrighted.
3. Documents jointly produced by AI and human authors must identify the two segments.
4. Documents that contain more than 50% of AI-written text cannot be copyrighted.
5. If a human author retypes AI original material this should be clearly identified.
6. If a human author attempts to conceal AI content copyrights would be voided.
7. If a human author conceals AI content and receives money that should be a misdemeanor.
8. Novels and non-fiction books submitted to publishers must identify AI content, if any.
9. Failure to identify AI content would void copyrights.
10. Art and illustrations produced by AI should be clearly identified.
11. Art and illustrations produced by AI cannot be copyrighted.
12. Laws should be passed that require all AI text and art to be identified as such.
13. Submitting AI-produced documents to a publisher without an AI mark should be illegal.
14. Royalties cannot be paid for AI produced text or illustrations.
15. If libelous AI materials are used by human authors the humans can be held accountable.
16. AI produced text should use a special unique typeface limited to AI documents.
17. The AI tools used to produce documents should be identified in the document.
18. Publishers should use AI tools to scan documents for hidden AI content.
19. Publishing contracts with human authors should require identifying all AI content.
20. Authors who use AI without identification should be expelled from writer associations.
21. AI tools can be used to find the best way to protect human authors from AI competition.
22. Probably new markets will emerge that specialize in AI produced books.
23. Using AI for scientific books to expand references and find new data can be helpful.
24. Eventually AI can convert novels into movies in a few seconds.
25. Eventually AI can convert novels into 3D movies and viewers can interact.
26. AI books should be restricted to E-book formats; paper books should only be available to human authors.

Artificial intelligence (AI) can be useful for non-fiction authors for fact checking and finding new citations and references.   AI can be very useful for medical journals and scientific articles to ensure up-to-date references and recent information.

But AI documents and art should not be passed off as the work of human authors for the purpose of making money.   The basic recommendations of this article are:

• AI materials should not be copyrighted.
• AI materials should not be able to get publishing royalties.
• AI books should be limited to E-book formats.
• Publishing contracts should require authors to identify AI content.
• Concealing AI text or art should be considered a criminal act or misdemeanor.
• Publishers should use AI detection tools to screen manuscripts.
• Human authors who conceal AI content should be expelled from author associations.
• New State and Federal laws are needed to protect human authors from AI.

Artificial intelligence (AI) as a useful tool for human writers, but it will be necessary to pass new laws that protect human writers from AI competition.

For non-fiction authors AI is very useful for fact checking and finding new citations and references.   AI can be very useful for medical journals and scientific articles to ensure up-to-date references and recent information.

The essence of keeping AI beneficial instead of harmful in the future will take extra effort by publishers to ensure that submissions using AI are clearly identified and separate from materials written by human authors.

It will also be necessary to pass new State and Federal laws that protect human authors from AI competition.

Publishers will need new clauses in contracts that that require clear identification for the AI portions of submitted works and to ensure that the AI text is visibly different from human text.  If a human author signs a contract for a book and conceals AI materials knowingly then the contract should be void and the royalty payments returned.

Cooperation Among Writers and Publishers Associations

Because artificial intelligence is a threat to all kinds of writers: fiction, nonfiction, screen writers, poets, mystery writers, romance writers, and all others it would be wise for the various authors associations to join forces and create an overall “Artificial Intelligence Study Group.”

Some of the major associations that should participate include the Authors Guild, the National Writers Guild, Sisters in Crime, the Screen Writers Guild (currently on strike) and many others.  A combined working group would probably represent over half a million writers in all kinds of books and magazines.

Publishers also might consider a joint approach to AI.  Although Addison Wesley and McGraw Hill compete today, both will be competing with AI book production in a few years.  AI is the largest threat to book and magazine publishing in human history.

There is no doubt that artificial intelligence is a serious threat to every writer in America, and it would be helpful if every major writers group  and every publisher could join together to create a united force.

Let us now consider the kinds of jobs that might be replaced by artificial intelligence or will be safe from AI competition:

JOBS THAT WILL BE THREATENED BY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

2023 U.S. Employment = 260 million; threatened by AI = 170 million

• Accountants
• Advertising workers
• Artists
• Authors
• Assembly line workers
• Banking
• Clerical workers
• College administrators
• College professors
• Consultants: without AI support
• Customer support personnel
• Drivers: taxis, limos
• Editors of books and magazines
• Engineers: civil, electrical etc.
• Financial workers
• Government workers in junior positions
• Hotel clerks
• Interior decorators
• Illustrators
• Music composers
• Musicians who record music
• Paralegals
• Pilots
• Publishers: books, magazines
• Retail clerks
• Technical writers
• Teachers
• Webmasters

JOBS THAT WILL PROBABLY BE SAFE FROM ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

2023 U.S. Employment = 260 million; unthreatened = 90 million

• Attorneys
• Carpenters
• Cyber security experts: assisted by AI but not replaced.
• Chefs
• Cruise line staff
• Company owners
• Construction workers
• Consultants: with AI support
• Delivery drivers
• Electricians
• Electric power repairs
• Farmers
• Firemen
• Flight attendants
• Government workers in executive positions
• Government agencies such as the CIA, FBI, Internal Revenue, etc.
• Journalists: who are famous with large reader bases
• Laborers
• Maintenance personnel: buildings, roads, etc.
• Mechanics
• Medical and dental personnel
• Military officers
• Military personnel
• Movie and television directors and actors
• Musicians: live performers
• Nursing aids
• Plumbers
• Police
• Postal workers
• Real Estate agents
• Software maintenance personnel
• Software development engineers
• Sports: football, baseball, basketball, etc.
• Truck drivers
• Veterinarians
• Waiters and waitresses

Author’s Published Books from 1978 to 2022 

1. Software Development Patterns and Anti-Patterns; Taylor Francis, 2022
2. A Guide to Selecting Software Measures and Metrics; Taylor Francis, 2017
3. Software Methodologies: A Quantitative Guide; McGraw Hill 2017
4. The Technical and Social History of Software Engineering; Addison Wesley, 2013
5. Quantifying Software – Global and Industry Perspectives;  CRC Press, 2012
6. The Economics of Software Quality, Prentice Hall, 2011
7. Software Engineering Best Practices;  McGraw Hill, 2009.
8. Applied Software Measurement, 3rd edition; McGraw Hill, 2008
9. Estimating Software Costs; McGraw Hill, 2007
10. The History and Future of Narragansett Bay; Universal Publishers, 2006.
11. Software Assessments, Benchmarks, and Best Practices; Addison Wesley Longman, Boston, Ma; 2000
12. The Year 2000 Software Problem, Addison Wesley Longman, Boston, MA; 1998.
13. Software Quality – Analysis and Guidelines for Success (International Thomson Computer Press; Boston, MA; 1997).
14. Patterns of Software System Failure and Success; International Thomson Computer Press: Boston, MA; 1995)
15. Assessment and Control of Software Risks; Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ; 1994.
16. Applied Software Measurement; McGraw Hill, 1991
17. Programming Productivity: Steps Toward a Science; Prentice Hall, 1993
18. Programming Productivity Issues for the Eighties; IEEE Press, 1981.
19. Software Quality Today; IBM Corporation; 1978
20. Software Engineering Best Practices; IBM Corporation 1978

Sample of Author’s Journal Articles from 1978 to 2023

More than 200 journal articles between 1978 and 2023 in magazines such as Scientific American, IBM Systems Journal, Datamation, Crosstalk, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Cutter Software Journal, and others. This list shows a sample of one article per year even though several might have been published in the same year.   Some of the titles include:

1. “Achieving Software Excellence”; MITRE Internal Journal; June 2020
2. “Early Sizing and Estimating”; IEEE Software; May 2020
3. “High Efficiency Defect Removal Efficiency”; IEEE Software; August 2019
4. “Function Points as a Universal Software Metrics”; IFPUG Journal; July 2018
5. “Challenges of Software Project Management”; IEEE Computer; June 2017”
6. “Corporate Software Risk Reduction”; ITT Journal; August 2016
7. “Defenses Against Software Litigation”; IEEE Computer; March 2015
8. Software Benchmark Analysis”; IEEE Software; June 2014
9. “Estimating Tool History”; IEEE Software; August 2013
10. “Software Measurement Errors”; IEEE Software; December 2012
11. “Software Quality Economics”; IEEE Software; January 2011
12. “Economics of Software Outsourcing”; Datamation; November 2010
13. “Quality Control for Embedded Software”; IEEE Computer, May 2009.
14. “Preventing Software Failure: Problems Noted in Breach of Contract Lawsuits”; U.S. Air Force software journal Crosstalk, June 2008.
15. “Software Defect Potentials”; Crosstalk, Air Force Technology Support Center; December 2007
16. “Social and Technical Reasons for Software Project Failure”; Crosstalk; Air Force Technology Support Center, June 2006.
17. “Software Engineering State of the Art”; IEEE Software; February 2005.
18. “The Evolution of Defense Software”; Crosstalk; Air Force Technology Support Center; November 2004
19. “Constructing a Data Point Metric for Measuring Data Quality; Cutter IT Journal; January 2003
20. “Why Software Cost Vary”; Datamation; December 2002.
21. “Conflict and Litigation between Software Clients and Developers”; IEEE Computer; April 2001.
22. “Analysis of Damages due to the Y2K Problem”; IEEE Software; December 2000.
23. “Sizing Up Software”; Scientific American Magazine; December 1998
24. “Measuring Programming Quality and Productivity”; IBM Systems Journal, Vol. 17, No. 1 (1978).

BIO:

Capers Jones, Vice President and CTO, Namcook Analytics LLC
Email: Capers.Jones3@Gmail.com
Web:   www.Namcook.com