#441 – ARE YOU @ RISK OF LOSING YOUR JOB – CAPERS JONES

The author is retired from IBM and owns a research company that uses artificial intelligence to examine economic and technical issues.   Unless people use computers for research, they may be unaware of two growing economic threats:  1) job losses caused by artificial intelligence; 2) Sea level rises due to global warming.

The author queried the Google Bard artificial intelligence tool about the calendar year that these two problems would become serious threats to the Florida economy, and the year 2050 was the answer to both questions.

Artificial Intelligence Risks to National, Florida, and Sarasota Employment

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a new technology that is changing science, business, authorship and publishing, military operations, and medical care.   Artificial intelligence will also have a major impact on U.S. employment.   This article discusses seven critical questions of importance to national, state, and local governments, andalso important to corporations, schools, and universities:

  1. How many U.S. jobs exist in 2024?
  2. How many jobs will artificial intelligence eliminate?
  3. How many jobs cannot be done by artificial intelligence?
  4. How many new jobs will artificial intelligence create?
  5. What kinds of jobs will be lost to AI?
  6. What kinds of jobs cannot be done by AI?
  7. What kinds of new jobs will AI create?

Note:  The AI tool Google Bard was used for fact checking in this draft and to do research on employment statistics.  Some of the illustrations were produced using artificial intelligence.  As of 2024 AI-generated illustrations cannot be copyrighted.  This means that new books using AI-generated illustrations will have many more illustrations than older books on the same topics.

The author of this report is retired from IBM and owns a research company, Namcook Analytics.

Before getting to the main topic of using artificial intelligence for political campaigns and government operations, it is useful to identify some of the available AI tools.   Readers should check frequently because new AI tools are being created rapidly.

 Examples of Free Artificial Intelligence Tools

ChatGPT                   Probably the most widely used AI tool.

Google Bard              Popular with Google email users

FOTOR AI                 Used for images and art creation.

Jasper AI                    Used for text and document content.

Lensa                          Used for facial images.

Photosonic                 Used for AI art and images.

Artbreeder                 Used for AI art and images.

Bing Image Creator  Used for AI art and images.

Readers should check the latest tools for generating pictures with artificial intelligence since new AI tools appear frequently.

The first image shows a male avatar:

The second image shows a female avatar:

AMERICAN JOBS THREATENED BY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

2024 U.S. Employment = 165 million; threatened by AI = 105 million

  1. Accountants
  2. Advertising workers
  3. Artists
  4. Authors of fiction books
  5. Assembly line workers
  6. Banking back-office personnel
  7. Clerical workers
  8. College administrators
  9. College professors
  10. Computer game designers without AI
  11. Consultants without AI support
  12. Customer support personnel
  13. Drivers of long-range trucks that do not have to unload vehicles
  14. Editors of books and magazines
  15. Engineers: civil, electrical etc.
  16. Financial workers
  17. Free-lance writers
  18. Function point counting specialists
  19. Government workers in junior positions
  20. High-school teachers
  21. Hotel clerks
  22. Interior decorators
  23. Illustrators
  24. Limo drivers
  25. Literary agents
  26. Magazine production personnel
  27. Marketing personnel
  28. Music composers
  29. Musicians who record music
  30. Paralegals
  31. Pilots and/or copilots
  32. Publishers: books, magazines
  33. Reservation clerks
  34. Retail clerks
  35. Secretaries
  36. Software engineers on business applications
  37. Software out-source companies and personnel
  38. Software maintenance programmers
  39. Software technical writers
  40. Space pilots
  41. Taxi drivers
  42. TV and movie production personnel
  43. Technical writers on engineering
  44. Teachers
  45. Webmasters

The next image shows laid-off workers due to artificial intelligence:

Next is a graph from Forrester Research of probable job losses due to AI:

AMERICAN JOBS THAT CANNOT BE DONE BY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

 2024 U.S. Employment = 165 million; unthreatened = 55 million

  1. Actors and actresses in live theater
  2. Attorneys
  3. Audiologists and hearing-aid consultants
  4. Authors who use AI
  5. Carpenters
  6. Coast Guard personnel
  7. Cyber security experts: assisted by AI.
  8. Chefs
  9. City and county jobs that are unionized
  10. Computer game designers using AI
  11. Computer maintenance personnel on legacy software
  12. Cruise line staff
  13. Cruise line engineers and machine room personnel
  14. Company owners
  15. Construction workers
  16. Consultants with AI support
  17. Delivery drivers who need to hand-carry packages.
  18. Dentists
  19. Dental hygiene workers
  20. Elected officials: city, county, State, and Federal
  21. Electricians
  22. Electric power repairs
  23. Farmers
  24. Film and TV actors and actresses
  25. Film and TV directors and editors
  26. Firemen
  27. Flight attendants
  28. Front office personnel in hotels, government offices, etc.
  29. Government workers in executive positions
  30. Government agencies such as the CIA, FBI, Internal Revenue, etc.
  31. Journalists: who are famous with large reader bases
  32. Judges: local, state, Federal, Supreme Court
  33. Laborers
  34. Lifeguards at beaches and pools
  35. Magazine reporters.
  36. Maintenance personnel: buildings, roads, etc.
  37. Mechanics
  38. Medical and dental personnel
  39. Meteorologists
  40. Military officers
  41. Military personnel
  42. Movie and television gaffers
  43. Musicians: live performers
  44. National-park rangers
  45. Newspaper reporters
  46. Nursing aids
  47. Plumbers
  48. Police
  49. Postal workers
  50. Prison guards
  51. Real Estate agents
  52. Reporters for television and major newspapers
  53. Road repair personnel
  54. Software architects and design personnel on AI projects
  55. Software development and maintenance engineers on AI projects.
  56. Special forces for secret military operations.
  57. Sports: football, golf, baseball, basketball, tennis, players and coaches, etc.
  58. State-park rangers and personnel
  59. Tax collectors
  60. Television news staff
  61. Truck drivers who unload goods and boxes.
  62. Undertakers
  63. Union members whose contracts prohibit AI replacement.
  64. Veterinarians
  65. Waiters and waitresses

Florida and Sarasota Government Jobs that Can be Replaced by Artificial Intelligence

In 2023 Florida has about 11 million employed workers.   As many as 7 million of these workers could be replaced by artificial intelligence within 10 years.

Sarasota has about 3,600 workers.  By 2027 about 2,000 could be replaced by artificial intelligence.  The only jobs that cannot be replaced are elected officials and people who use tools such as mechanics.  Also. people who need to move or drive such as police and firemen cannot be replaced by artificial intelligence.  All jobs that deal only with information are at risk:  receptionists, clerks, and even low-level software engineers since artificial intelligence can now build software systems.

So far nothing has been published about the dangers of artificial intelligence replacing government workers.  But since AI job losses could start as early as 2024, now is the time to begin planning for the next few years.

Unless the Sarasota Commissioners and the Sarasota city government move quickly, this is what a Sarasota government office will look like in 2050:

The State of Florida and Sarasota County and the City should immediately form study groups that use local computer science faculty as consultants, in order to plan ahead before the job losses actually start to happen, which could be before the end of 2024.

Legally only humans can run for office so AI cannot replace elected officials, although it might be that AI could do better than some.  Also, artificial intelligence cannot be bribed, or threatened or coerced although computer programmers can be bribed and threatened.  However, computer programmers can also hack into the bank accounts of those who threaten them, so that is not a wise option.

Jobs that Cannot be Performed by Artificial Intelligence

Following are sample illustrations created by artificial intelligence of jobs that AI cannot do.

First is an image of a hospital nurse:

Next is a picture of a policeman created with artificial intelligence and available from Pixabay:

Next is a picture of a woman combat soldier:

The final illustration is Sam Altman of Open AI testifying to Congress about the impact of AI on America:

 

Jobs that cannot be done by artificial intelligence require outside movement, use of tools, or jobs that are protected by legal or union regulations.   Elected officials cannot be replaced by AI because only humans can be entered onto election ballots.

It is fortunate for politicians that they cannot be replaced by artificial intelligence, because AI does a better job in decision making than many live politicians.

In the future, competent elected officials, and regular government workers, will use AI tools to examine the pros and cons of complex topics.

As recent examples of how AI might help, any reader who uses Google Bard or another AI tool should ask basic questions such as “what will be the impact of large new hotels on Siesta Key winter traffic.”    Or questions about solutions, such as “what can be done to improve winter traffic on Siesta Key?”

Unless government workers learn to use artificial intelligence, they are at risk of being replaced by artificial intelligence.

For Florida and Sarasota, government workers need to be taught how to use artificial intelligence for their jobs.  Also unions such as the American Federation of Government Employees need to seek protective legislation to avoid jobs being replaced by artificial intelligence.

Teaching AI to young people will soon be standard.  Starting in 2024 the University of Florida will require that all students take at least one course in artificial intelligence no matter what they major in.

For older government workers who need to learn about AI to use it in their jobs, either local universities or local computer associations can provide live courses and Zoom courses.  In Sarasota the Sarasota Technology Users Group has many retired computer professionals who might help.  There are similar computer associations in most cities in Florida and throughout the United States.p0

This is the end of 2023.  Every year more people will be at risk of losing jobs unless government, corporations, and international organizations work together to plan how artificial intelligence can be integrated into the American work force without putting millions of workers out of jobs.

The next section discusses new jobs that artificial intelligence can create, but they are less than 10% of the jobs that will be lost.

New kinds of jobs that will be created due to artificial intelligence

2024 U.S. Employment = 165 million; new kinds of jobs = 10 million

  1. AI assisted cyber-security experts.
  2. AI assisted movie and television production personnel.
  3. AI assisted home security specialists.
  4. AI assisted bankers and financial planners.
  5. AI assisted librarians in major libraries.
  6. AI assisted military planning personnel.
  7. AI assisted medical and hospital staff.
  8. AI assisted Federal and State investigative bureaus.
  9. AI assisted paralegals.
  10. AI assisted traffic control personnel.
  11. AI assisted commercial artists.
  12. AI assisted musical composers.
  13. AI assisted military planning specialists.
  14. AI assisted home and office building construction crews.
  15. AI assisted secret service and protection details for high-level officials.
  16. AI assisted scientists and researchers in all fields.
  17. AI assisted State and local government agencies.
  18. AI assisted tax collection agencies at all levels.
  19. AI assisted telephone personnel.
  20. AI assisted television production crews.

An interesting picture of AI-assisted jobs shows an IMAX movie camera crew created by artificial intelligence:

AI can design background, operate drones for overhead shots, and obey the commands of directors by voice or telephone.   AI can also generate images of background actors and actresses for crowd scenes.

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *