#160 – OFFSHORING RULES HAVE CHANGED – GREG HUTCHINS

Greg HutchinsOne article title this week screamed: “Trump Put Companies on Notice: Outsource At Your Own Peril.[1]

President Elect Trump had his first news conference this week and a reporter asked a question of US companies continued sourcing.  His response was:

“when you want to move your plant to Mexico or some other place … you’re going to pay a big border tax.”

Ouch.  We have heard the tax may be 10% to 35%.

Let’s take a look at just one sector – the US automotive sector.  This means that if cars are assembled or produced in Mexico and imported to the US will have to pay a tariff if they are being sold in the US.

This is a game changer for companies that had outsourced work and jobs to plants all around the world.  And, this strategy is having an immediate impact:

  • Ford canceled a $1.6 billion plant in Hermosillo, Mexico.
  • Fiat Chrysler may withdraw from Mexico.

The reaction from Mexico has been reactive and fearful.  Mexico’s Foreign Minister said:

“I think the uncertainty (over trade) is doing a lot of harm to investment decisions in the automotive sector and many other sectors.” [2]

SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT

Trump’s election also impacted me.

Twelve years ago, we wrote a book called: Supply Management Strategies.  We were updating it in the Fall and were calling it: Supply Chain Risk Management.

I listened to a Trump speech in the Midwest on global sourcing.  I realized that Trump was connecting with lots of voters and had a good chance of being elected president.  And if he were elected, the book now into 350 pages would have to be rewritten.  Ouch …

So, now Trump is the president – elect.  He is tweeting and warning companies of the impending changes.  Companies that outsource are listening.  Why?

Up to 80% of the manufacturing dollar is sourced to domestic or more often offshore suppliers.  Especially with offshore suppliers, the impacts can be significant:

  • Companies are going to have to develop new strategic plans to cope with the impacts.
  • Companies with offshore suppliers may well have to pay a tariff to import these products.
  • Companies will have to revisit the cost benefits of outsourcing.
  • Companies will have to develop new domestic suppliers for their products and services.

This is going to be highly disruptive as the value of globalization and offshoring is revisited.

[1] Trump Puts Companies on Notice, Outsources At Your Own Peril,” January, 11, 2017.

  1. Ibid.

[2] “Mexico Again Says There Is ‘No Way’ It Will Pay for Trump Wall,” Reuters, January 12, 2017.

Bio:

Greg Hutchins PE and CERM (503.233.101 & GregH@QualityPlusEngineering.com)  is the founder of:

CERMAcademy.com
800Compete.com
QualityPlusEngineering.com

WorkingIt.com

He is the evangelist behind Future of Quality: Risk®.  He is currently working on the Future of Work and machine learning projects.

He is a frequent speaker and expert on Supply Chain Risk Management and cyber security.  His current books available on all platform are shown below:

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