Category Archives: Strategy@Risk – Geary Sikich

#154 – BLACK SWANS, GREY SWANS, WHITE SWANS … – GEARY SIKICH

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Untitled1-150x150We hear a lot about things that are being called “Black Swans” today thanks to Nassim Taleb and his extremely successful book, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” now in its second edition. I have written several articles centering on the “Black Swan” phenomenon; defending, clarifying and analyzing the nature of “Black Swan” events. And, I am finding that wildly improbable events are becoming perfectly routine events. Continue reading →

#152 – ARE WE MISSING THE POINT OF EXERCISING OUR PLANS? – GEARY SIKICH

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Untitled1-150x150Introduction

Imagine that your plan has been implemented as it was designed. You and your organization carried out the plan following every detail that was contained in the planning documents. Your plan has failed. That is all you know. Your plan failed. But, you think, “We exercised the plan!” Yes, indeed you did exercise your plan. And now you are being taken to task because the plan failed and this reflects on you and your planning team and on your customers – those who provided input and those who were supposed to execute the plan. Continue reading →

#151 – CAN YOU CALCULATE THE PROBABILITY OF UNCERTAINTY? – GEARY SIKICH

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Untitled1-150x150Many aspects of risk management are deeply rooted in mathematical formulae for determining probability. This heavy dependence on mathematics to determine probability of risk realization may create “false positives” regarding a risk that can be either positive or negative. There is also a limitation on how much data can be gathered and assessed in respect to the development of the probability equation regarding the risk being assessed. Continue reading →

#150 – FUTURE PROOFING – THE PROCESS OF ACTIVE ANALYSIS – GEARY SIKICH

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Untitled1-150x150Overview

The ability to effectively respond to and manage the consequences of an event in a timely manner is essential to ensure an organization’s survivability in today’s fast paced business environment. With the emergence of new threats, such as cyber-terrorism and bio-terrorism; and the increasing exposure of companies to traditional threats such as, fraud, systems failure, fire, explosions, spills, natural disasters, etc. an “integrated” approach to Business Continuity Planning is essential. Continue reading →

#148 – UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF RISK REPORTING – GEARY SIKICH AND JOOP REMME

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Untitled1-150x150Introduction

In this article we posit three questions. The first question is: “Is it a social responsibility of companies that they undertake a comprehensive risk assessment?” The second question: “Does the notion of conscience and its application to the generation and use of risk information and information in general, create an obligation for the organization to disclose
the results of the comprehensive risk assessment?” The third question “How do the people Jooplesin the organization communicate the information from the comprehensive risk assessment to stakeholders and yet preserve security and protect the organization?” Continue reading →