In his post Cause of Death:  Invalid Assumptions, my colleague Mark Moore observed that project risk management often excludes consideration of underlying assumptions on which event probabilities and prospective impacts are based.  Obviously, we cannot operate without relying on what we know or we would have to reinvent the wheel every time we had to go somewhere.  On the other hand, failing to challenge what we believe we know or to consider the possibility that there are relevant factors about which we have no idea (so-called “unknown unknowns”) can result in vastly underestimating risks or missing opportunities.  This article will raise questions more than it will provide answers but it does suggest that some changes in PM discipline can help reduce the risks our assumptions create. Continue reading →